Day 348: Kyiv Prepares for Renewed Russian Attacks

Facts

• According to Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy's nightly address on Sunday, Kyiv is continuing to prepare for an imminent Russian bombardment as the anniversary of the Russian invasion draws nearer.
• Ukraine's defense minister Oleksii Reznikov has said the nation has the reserves necessary to hold back Moscow's forces. 'Despite everything,' he stated, 'we expect a possible Russian offensive in February.' Reportedly, not all of the latest military supplies promised to Kyiv by western countries will have arrived in time to aid defense against the alleged coming attack.
• Reznikov's words come as the minister faces pressure over corruption allegations, with reports suggesting he will soon be moved into another government position. It recently emerged that Reznikov had paid two or three times the market price for food sent to frontline troops; Kyrylo Budanov is now set to take up the role of defense minister.
• In other news, the German government announced on Monday that it expects it will soon have the necessary commitments from other EU countries to send the promised Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine. Fourteen tanks have been pledged by Berlin, which wants to establish two battalions of the Leopards in cooperation with other countries.
• Elsewhere, Ukrainian repair crews were working nonstop in the Black Sea port of Odesa to restore power, after a fire left hundreds of thousands of residents without electricity. 'Repair work is going on round the clock,' said Zelenskyy, continuing with the allegation that such damage to Ukraine's cities 'could not have happened' before the start of Russian attacks on power generation sites.
• Meanwhile, Advisor to Ukraine's Head of the President's Office Mykhailo Podoliak has claimed that the allegation Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin promised not to kill Pres. Zelenskyy is fictitious. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's minister of foreign affairs, said of Putin: 'Do not be fooled ... Every time he has promised not to do something, it has been exactly part of his plan.'

Sources: Euronews, Sky news, Guardian, The telegraph, Reuters and Ukrainska pravda.

Narratives

• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by CNBC. Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure — unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians — amounts to war crimes. This continuing Russian barbarity must be confronted.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and the thought that they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 90% chance that 50,000 Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Predictions