Day 322: Head of Russia's Wagner Group Says His Troops Control Soledar

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Facts

• The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has claimed that his forces have taken control of the small but significant Donetsk town of Soledar after weeks of fierce fighting. If confirmed, control of the town, which lies nine miles (15km) north of Bakhmut, would mark Russia's first battlefield breakthrough since the summer.¹
• Posting a picture of himself surrounded by Wagner forces, in what appeared to be one of Soledar's salt mines, Prigozhin said: 'Wagner units have taken the whole territory of Soledar under control.' He added that Ukrainian troops were surrounded in the centre of the town and that: 'There are street battles ongoing. The number of prisoners taken will be announced tomorrow.'¹
• However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — a US military think tank — pointed to Prigozhin's statement that street battles are ongoing, saying it indicated that Soledar was in fact not under Russian control. 'Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar,' ISW said, 'despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement.'²
• In his nightly address, Ukrainain Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the 'bravery and steadfastness' of Ukrainian fighters in Soledar, but made no mention of the military situation on the ground. On Wednesday, Ukrainian armed forces denied that the town has fallen.³
• However, Zelenskyy added in the address that four former Ukrainian MPs — Andrii Derkach, Taras Kozak, Renat Kuzmin and Viktor Medvedchuk — have been stripped of their Ukrainian citizenship after they were accused of cooperating with Russia. 'If people's deputies choose to serve not the people of Ukraine, but the murderers who came to Ukraine,' Zelenskyy said, 'then our actions will be appropriate.'⁴
• Zelenskyy also addressed the Golden Globes ceremony held on Tuesday. 'There are still battles and tears ahead. But now I can tell you who was the best in the previous year — you in the free world, who united around support of free Ukrainian people,' he stated.⁵
• Meanwhile, in addition to attacks in Donetsk, where Ukrainian officials said one civilian was killed and one more was injured over the past day, Russian attacks were also recorded in Kherson, Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk. Five civilians were reported injured during attacks on Kherson. Pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that one civilian was killed and 14 more were injured in Ukrainian attacks in the same time period.⁶

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²ISW, ³CNN (a), ⁴UKRINFORM (a), ⁵CNN (b) and ⁶UKRINFORM (b).

Narratives

• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Newsweek. If Russia has in fact taken control of Soledar, it would be a hollow victory as it has little military or tactical benefit and it will not improve Russia's prospects elsewhere. Whatever happens in this isolated incident, Ukraine will win the wider war.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Russia's liberation of Soledar is extremely significant as it paves the way for Russian encirclement of Bakhmut, as well as further advances in the Donetsk region which it will soon completely control.

Predictions