Day 336: Germany, US Approve Tanks for Ukraine

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Facts

  • Following days of hesitation and mounting pressure, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday announced that his government would provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks while approving requests for other countries to do the same.
  • Germany said it would initially send 14 tanks from its own stocks, while stating that the aim was for Germany and its allies to send a total of two battalions, equivalent to 88 vehicles. 'This is the result of intensive consultations, once again, with our allies and international partners,' Sholz said.
  • Germany's decision was followed by a 'closely coordinated' announcement from US Pres. Joe Biden that the US plans to send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and provide the training needed to operate the vehicles. In addition to the tanks — which Biden says will 'take time' to deliver — the US will also send eight M88 vehicles.
  • Following Germany's announcement, Russia's ambassador to the country, Sergei Nechayev, hit out at the decision and said it takes the conflict to a new level, saying 'This extremely dangerous decision takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation...'
  • Meanwhile, Anatoly Antonov, Russia's ambassador to the US, had similarly strong words for America, calling it 'another blatant provocation against the Russian Federation.' He added, 'No one should have illusions about who is the real aggressor in the current conflict.'
  • On the ground, after Russia claimed to have taken control of Soledar in Donetsk last week, Ukraine's armed forces conceded on Wednesday that it has withdrawn from the settlement. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials said 10 civilians were injured in Russian attacks on Donetsk over the past day; Pro-Russian media said one civilian was killed in Ukrainian attacks for the same time period.
  • Elsewhere, Ukrainian officials reported that one civilian was killed and six more were injured in Russian attacks on Kherson in the past day. Two civilians were injured in attacks on Kharkiv while one was injured in Zaporizhzhia. Sumy, Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv were also shelled without reports of civilian casualties.

Sources: Associated press, Associated press, NBC, Al jazeera, Tass, Ukrinform and Ukrinform.

Narratives

  • Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by CNN. The decision by Germany and the US to send battle tanks is momentous because these — unlike missile defense systems for instance — are not considered defensive weapons. Despite the slight disarray, this signals to Russia that Western allies are committed to fully backing Ukraine in the war and seeing that it comes out victorious.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. While Russia will destroy these tanks like all other NATO equipment, this escalation unmasks the West's real intention in Ukraine which is seeking the strategic defeat of Russia. This move should leave no illusions as to who the real aggressors are in this conflict.
  • Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There is a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Predictions