Day 356: At NATO Talks, Ukraine Seeks Warplanes; Allies Concerned Over Ammo

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Facts

• Ten days away from the one-year anniversary of the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war last February, the Ukraine Defense Contact group met for the ninth time at NATO's headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday.¹
• While Ukraine's defense minister Oleksii Reznikov used the talks to press allies for fighter jets — which Western partners have so far refused — partners were reportedly more concerned with providing ammunition amid fears Ukraine is using stockpiles faster than Western countries can currently supply.¹
• Ahead of the talks, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters: 'It is clear that we are in a race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel, and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield.'²
• While US defense secretary Lloyd Austin told the meeting that allies are prepared to support Ukraine 'for the long haul' and reports suggested the US will unveil a new arms package next week, one senior Biden official told the Washington Post that diplomats are privately warning Ukraine that long-term security assistance is not guaranteed. 'We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever,' the official reportedly said on the condition of anonymity.³
• Meanwhile, as officials continued to report heavy fighting in and around the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces have reportedly blown up a bridge near the city — signaling that Ukrainian forces may be preparing a retreat. Ukrainian officials also restricted journalists’ access to Bakhmut on Monday, though they have denied that they intend to withdraw.⁴
• Ukrainian officials reported that one civilian was killed and three others were injured in Donetsk over the past day, while two civilians were killed and three more were injured in the Kherson region.⁵

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Politico, ³Washington Post, ⁴Guardian and ⁵Ukrinform.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. Supplying Ukraine with ammunition, fuel, and spare parts is currently more vital than supplying new weaponry. Delivering new equipment that would take months of training has to take a back seat to ensuring that Ukraine has the supplies it needs to operate existing weapons and systems.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by AntiWar. Multi-billion dollar weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical Ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.

Predictions