Day 323: Kyiv 'Holding On' to Soledar in Donetsk, Ukrainian Minister Says

Facts

• Ukraine's deputy defense minister Hanna Malyar said on Thursday that the country's forces are "holding on" to the Donetsk town of Soledar — contradicting earlier claims from Russia's Wagner mercenary group that it had taken control of the town.¹
• The message was echoed by Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his nightly address on Wednesday. "Now the terrorist state and its propagandists are trying to pretend [that they have achieved success in Soledar]," he said. However, "fighting continues" Zelenskyy stated.²
• Meanwhile on Thursday, the Wagner Group further claimed to have discovered the body of one of two Britons reported missing in Ukraine. Andrew Bagshaw, 48, and Chris Parry, 28, were last seen heading to Soledar before their families raised the alarm over their disappearance earlier in the week.³
• Without naming which body they allegedly discovered, Wagner posted pictures of documents said to belong to both men which they stated had been carried by the individual. Russian sources described the pair as fighters, though British media referred to them as aid workers. A Downing Street spokesperson said they could not verify the reports, but commented that they were "deeply concerning."³
• Elsewhere in Donetsk, Ukrainian officials said one civilian had been killed in the region over the past day. Pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that one civilian was killed and four more were injured for the same time period.⁴
• In other regions of Ukraine, officials reported that one civilian was killed and five more were injured in Kherson. Three civilians were also injured in Zaporizhzhia, while one person was injured in Dnipropetrovsk. Russian attacks were also recorded in the regions of Mykolaiv and Chernihiv without reports of related civilian casualties.⁵
• Meanwhile, Russia confirmed that it promoted its military's Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, to the role of top commander of its forces in Ukraine on Thursday. In a statement from Russia's defense ministry, it said the appointment was made in order to tackle a "broader scope of missions," as well as to have "closer coordination among military branches."⁶

Sources: ¹Al Arabiya English, ²President of Ukraine, ³BBC News, ⁴DAN, ⁵Ukrinfrom and ⁶TASS.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. After having taken Soledar, Russia can now use freed-up forces to achieve similar results in Bakhmut, which it will be able to attack from multiple directions. The success in Soledar also opens the door for further Russian advances in the wider Donetsk region.
• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Ukrainska Pravda. Russia is spreading false news about the capture of Soledar in order to give its population positive news from an otherwise disastrous military campaign. Russia is also desperately trying to shore up support ahead of future mobilization drives.

Predictions