Day 310: Belarus Downs Ukrainian Air-Defense Missile

Facts

  • Following the latest barrage of Russian missiles fired on Ukraine on Thursday, Belarus said it shot down a Ukrainian S-300 air-defense missile near the village of Harbacha in the Brest region, roughly nine miles (15 km) from the border of Ukraine.
  • Ukraine's ambassador to Belarus was summoned to the foreign ministry in Minsk as a result of the incident. Ministry spokesman Anatoly Glaz said: "The Belarusian side views this incident as extremely serious." He continued, saying: "We demanded that the Ukrainian side conduct a thorough investigation," and called for Ukraine to "hold those responsible to account." Glaz also stated that the neighboring country should seek to stop an incident like this from happening again.
  • In response, Ukraine's defense ministry said: "The Ukrainian side, reserving the unconditional right to the defense and protection of its own sky, at the same time is ready to conduct an objective investigation in Ukraine." It added that it did not rule out a "deliberate provocation" in which Russia launched its cruise missiles on a path that would be intercepted over Belarusian territory.
  • Meanwhile, Russia launched fresh attacks overnight and on Friday morning. Ukraine's air force said it shot down all 16 drones deployed by Russia, with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko adding that two of the drones were destroyed over the capital while another five were shot down in the wider Kyiv region. However, officials said one of the downed drones "partially destroyed" an administrative building and damaged the windows of a nearby residence in the Holosiivskyi district.
  • Ukrainian officials said that, during attacks in the last 24 hours, three civilians were killed and two more were injured in the Kharkiv region, one civilian was killed and another was injured in the Donetsk region, and one civilian was killed in the Kherson region. One civilian was also injured in the Ivano-Frankivsk region.
  • Meanwhile, in Ukrainian attacks for the same time period, pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that one civilian was killed and 10 more were injured in the region.

Sources: Reuters, Pravda, Ukrinform, and Dan News.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Belta. The firing of an air-defense missile into Belarus is a very serious incident that risked prompting an international escalation of the conflict. Ukraine needs to conduct a thorough review to prevent this type of potentially inflammatory event from occurring again.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Politico. The Kremlin is desperate to involve Belarus in its war of aggression in Ukraine. As such, it cannot be ruled out that Russia deliberately laid a route for one of its missiles that would lead to it being intercepted over the territory of the country.
  • Narrative C, as provided by Reuters. The S-300 is a Soviet-era weapon used by both Russia and Ukraine. It's notoriously unreliable and is known to miss its targets and go astray. Although undesirable, there's nothing strange or suspicious about this incident.

Predictions