Day 286: Further Strike in Russian Borders; ICC Prosecutor Opposes EU Plan for Ukraine Tribunal

Facts

• A day after two attacks hit airfields deep within Russia's borders, a further attack was reported in the border region of Kursk on Tuesday. Roman Starovoit, governor of the Kursk region, said: "An oil tank is on fire as a result of a drone attack near the Kursk airfield. There are no casualties."
• Starovoit added that, following consultations with Russia's anti-terrorist commission, a decision was made to extend the region's yellow terror-threat level (meaning high) for a period of 15 days.
• Further Ukrainian attacks also continued to be reported in the Donetsk region, where separatist officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said four civilians were killed and seven more injured in the last 24 hours.
• In the meantime, in Russian attacks on Tuesday, one civilian was killed in Kharkiv while nine people were injured in Donetsk. A further injury was reported in Kherson. Attacks were also recorded in the regions of Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia with no reports of civilian casualties at this stage.
• Meanwhile, Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu on Tuesday repeated accusations that Ukraine is committing "nuclear terrorism," after alleging that its forces have continued to shell the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in the last few weeks.
• Shoigu said that most of the shells fired by Ukraine were intercepted by Russian air defenses, but added that, "some still hit objects that affect the safe operation of the nuclear power plant." Ukraine has denied striking the ZNPP — which has been under Russian control since the first days of the war — and has alleged that Russia is responsible for the attacks.
• Elsewhere, Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Monday denounced proposals from the EU to create a special UN-backed court to investigate possible war crimes in Ukraine. Khan, who has his own probe ongoing, said: "The EU has misstated the law," adding: "We should avoid fragmentation, and instead work on consolidation."

Sources: Tass, Pravda, Yahoo News, and Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by PBS NewsHour. This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by National Security Archive. NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Predictions