Day 260: Ukraine Skeptical of Russian Withdrawal from Kherson

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Facts

  • Ukrainian officials have remained skeptical after Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu publicly ordered his troops to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River on Wednesday. The order marks an evacuation of Russian troops from Kherson.
  • Among those expressing skepticism was Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said: "The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make 'gestures of goodwill.' We fight our way up." He added: "Therefore, we move very carefully, without emotions, without unnecessary risk. In the interests of the liberation of our entire land and so that the losses are as small as possible. This is how we will secure the liberation of Kherson, Kakhovka, Donetsk, and our other cities."
  • However, according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based military think tank, the Russian withdrawal is, "unlikely to be a trap meant to lure Ukrainian troops into costly combat near Kherson City, as some Ukrainian and Western sources have suggested."
  • The think tank added: "ISW has previously observed many indicators that Russian forces, military and economic assets, and occupation elements have steadily withdrawn from the west bank across the Dnipro River, and Russian officials have been anticipating and preparing for withdrawal in a way that is incompatible with a campaign to deceive and trap Ukrainian troops."
  • They further added, however, that Russian troops will "certainly attempt" to slow Ukrainian advances and maintain an orderly withdrawal. On Thursday, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian troops were planting mines near roads and settlements in the Kherson region.
  • Meanwhile, according to unverified video footage, Ukrainian troops on Thursday claimed to have recaptured the town of Snihurivka in the southern Mykolaiv region. The town is roughly 35 miles (55 km) from the city of Kherson.
  • Elsewhere, Russian efforts continued in the Donetsk region where Ukrainian officials reported three civilians were killed and 12 more injured in the last 24 hours. One civilian in Zaporizhzhia and one in Dnipropetrovsk were also injured in Russian attacks.

Sources: MSN, Ukrinform, Understanding War, Pravda, and U.S. News.

Narratives

  • Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by CNN. There's no camouflaging Moscow's failure. After illegally annexing Kherson, distributing Russian passports, and suggesting the ruble would replace the Ukrainian hryvnia, Russia's withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro is both unsurprising and humiliating.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. After strikes on supply lines to the west bank of the Dnipro River, Russian leaders have made the difficult, but strategically sound decision to withdraw troops in order to preserve the lives of servicemen and deploy them more effectively elsewhere.

Predictions