Day 240: Conflicting Reports of Attacks on Kherson Dam; 4 Killed in Ukrainian Strike on Ferry Crossing

Facts

  • In widely reported comments made on Thursday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleged that Russian forces have mined the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) in the southern Kherson region. The leader claimed, without evidence, that opposition forces are preparing a false-flag terror attack.
  • Ukraine's Pres. said: "Russia is consciously laying the groundwork for a large-scale disaster in Ukraine’s south. We have information that Russian terrorists have mined the dam and units of the KHPP." Explosions in the dam, which is believed to hold 18M cubic metres of water, could cause severe flooding and disrupt water supplies in Russian-occupied regions, including Crimea.
  • Meanwhile, Vladimir Leontyev, a Russian-appointed official in the surrounding Novaya Kakhovka district, alleged that Ukrainian forces launched multiple rocket strikes on the KHPP on Thursday. Reports of the attack could not be independently confirmed.
  • The claims were made as Russian officials and forces began evacuating residents of Kherson in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and fears of possible flooding in the region.
  • On Friday, a ferry crossing taking residents of Kherson deeper into Russian-controlled territories was attacked by Ukrainian rockets. The strike caused the deaths of four civilians — including two journalists — and injured 10 others according to Russian media. Ukrainian media have acknowledged the attack. Elsewhere, Russian attacks were reported in the regions of Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv where six people were reported injured.
  • Back in Russia, a court on Thursday ordered the arrest of Marina Ovsyannikova – the TV journalist who flashed a sign saying the Kremlin was lying about the war. Earlier this week, her lawyer said she had escaped house arrest and fled the country.

Sources: Pravda and Tass.

Narratives

  • Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by New York Times. Russia is preparing to launch a false-flag attack on the KHPP in order to cover its soldiers' retreat and delay Ukrainian advances across the Dnipro river.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. The KHPP is strategically important to Russia — Moscow's forces would not damage it. Ukraine, on the other hand, aims to destroy the dam in order to inflict a man-made catastrophe in the recently annexed region.

Predictions