Day 210: Putin Declares Partial Military Mobilization as World Leaders Gather at UN

Facts

• On Wednesday, in a rare videotaped address to the nation, Russian Pres. Putin announced the partial mobilization of Russia's military. He described the decision as "necessary and urgent," claiming that the West had "crossed all lines" by sending advanced weaponry to Ukraine.
• Roughly 300K reservists will reportedly be called up. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said that only people with relevant combat and service experience will be mobilized and that only around 1% of the 25M who meet these criteria will be utilized under the new campaign.
• Wednesday's address also saw Putin accuse the West of "nuclear blackmail," pointing to alleged "statements of some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO states about the possibility of using nuclear weapons of mass destruction against Russia."
• Also this week, at the annual UN General Assembly, nations joined to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the invasion, now in its seventh month, had "no justification whatsoever." Meanwhile, French Pres. Emmanuel Macron declared that all nations who "remain silent," rather than condemn the Kremlin, "are serving the cause of a new imperialism."
• In an address to the General Assembly on Tuesday, Japanese PM Fumio Kishida also condemned the Russian military presence in Ukraine, saying that it was destabilizing the international order and the rule of law.
• This came as proxy Russian authorities in the occupied Ukrainian areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Tuesday announced plans to hold referendums between Sept. 23-27 on joining the Russian Federation. The White House has rejected the proposed elections, while a spokesperson for the Ukrainian President's office has reportedly suggested that such referenda would eliminate any possibility of a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

Sources: New York Times, Washington Post, Al Jazeera, Reuters, and Guardian.

Narratives

• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. These mobilization measures are a response to Western aggression that will help protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of regions within the Russian Federation. Only citizens with prior military experience will be called up and will undergo further military training before being dispatched to support military units in this special operation. The government will also provide defense units with all the supplies and financial resources necessary for success.
• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Financial Times. This mobilization is the desperate move of a Russian regime under military and domestic threat. Russia's military has already sustained significant losses, and the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive has revealed the vulnerability of Russia's overstretched invasion forces. Even some on the political right in Russia are beginning to criticize the sustainability of the invasion, while evidence has emerged that the Kremlin is desperately coercing groups, including prisoners, to volunteer for service.

Predictions