Day 199: Zaporizhzhia Power Plant Without External Power; Russia Withdraws Troops From Key Areas

Facts

• The Russian-held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in southern Ukraine is without offsite power after a backup line to the facility was damaged by shelling. Four regular power lines had already been lost earlier in the week and the damage to the backup line, which has been cut and restored repeatedly this week, means the ZNPP has been forced to rely on diesel generators – only sustainable for a few hours at a time.
• Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said shelling of the switchyard at Enerhodar's thermal power plant led to a complete power blackout in the city and the ZNPP. "As a result, the IAEA understands that the operator, having no longer confidence in the restoration of offsite power, is considering shutting down the only remaining operating reactor."
• Meanwhile, Saturday saw Russian forces retreat from key strategic areas in the northeast Kharvik region as Ukraine reportedly took control of the town of Balakliya, Izyum and Kupiansk. Russia's defense ministry said the retreat would allow its troops "to regroup."
• In a video address on Sat., Pres. Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian forces have captured around 2k square km (770 square miles) of territory since it launched its counteroffensive earlier this month.
• Despite the focus on Kharkiv, Ukrainian counterattacks also continued in the south where its forces reported more assaults on the region of Kherson as well as the city of Melitopol. In an intelligence briefing, the UK's defense ministry said: "... the Russian defensive front is under pressure on both its northern and southern flanks."
• Elsewhere, after seven Russian officials called for the impeachment of Pres. Vladimir Putin alleging "high treason" for launching the invasion in Ukraine, the officials were reportedly summoned for police questioning, according to a text message shared by one of the officials.

Sources: Guardian, Tass, Reuters, Pravda, and Newsweek.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Daily Beast. Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine has turned the territory around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant into a war zone, placing the world at risk of nuclear catastrophe. Russia must unconditionally leave the plant and let officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency permanently take control of the situation.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Daily Mail. Western media continues to portray Ukraine as a sainted nation that can do no wrong, while the Russian military are vilified as a threat to global stability. However, given that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been under the control of Russian forces since early March, Kyiv's forces are far more likely to be the ones shelling it. Are we really to believe the Russians are shelling themselves?

Predictions