Day 197: Ukraine Reportedly Makes Major Gains in Surprise Attack on Northeast

Facts

• With Russian forces reorganizing to respond to a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, Ukraine's forces reportedly advanced as much as 12 mi (20 km) in a surprise attack in the northeastern region of Kharkiv – reportedly reclaiming roughly 150 sq mi (400 sq km) of territory, according to military analysts.
• Ukraine's forces were reportedly driving southeast from Kharkiv city towards the Russian-held city of Izyum. According to an official from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), Ukrainian attacks were launched on the city of Balakliya – in between Kharkiv city and Izyum – which was now "in operative encirclement and within the firing range of Ukrainian artillery."
• Despite claiming to recapture a village in the south earlier in the week, Ukraine's forces are reportedly incurring heavy losses in the region. A soldier told the Washington Post: "We lost five people for every one they [lost]"; others reported that Russia was focused on halting the counteroffensive and that Ukraine was heavily outmatched in artillery capabilities.
• Meanwhile, shelling continued near the Zaporizhzhia power plant and its satellite city of Enerhodar, both controlled by Russian forces since the first days of the war, with Russia and Ukraine again trading blame for the attacks. Three civilians were reported killed and five more were injured in Russian shelling of the wider Zaporizhzhia region.
• Across the Dnieper river, Russia continued to shell the region of Dnipropetrovsk, namely in the city of Nikopol and the nearby settlement of Marhanets. Russian strikes also continued to be reported in Sumy and Donetsk, where seven civilians were reported killed and two injured. Officials from the DPR said four civilians were injured as a result of Ukrainian shelling.
• Elsewhere, U.S. Sec. of State Antony Blinken made his second unscheduled visit to Kyiv on Wed, announcing a $2B financing package for military aid – half of which will go to Ukraine, with the rest going to 18 nearby countries that are "most potentially at risk for future Russian aggression," pending Congressional approval. This comes in addition to a $675M package announced by U.S. Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin the same day.

Sources: Understanding War, Guardian, Washington Post, Associated Press, and Pravda.

Narratives

• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by Forbes. Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive seems to be taking shape and it's not only making gains in the southern Kherson region – it's driving Russians out of the northeastern Kharkiv region as well. The war's momentum is shifting in Kyiv's favor.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Moon of Alabama. Ukraine has thrown thousands of men into the southern counteroffensive – many of which have died without making any substantial gains. Ukraine's efforts in Kharkiv will likely suffer the same fate. Is all this human loss necessary, just for the sake of a few positive headlines in the press?

Predictions