Day 188: Ukraine Claims Breakthrough in Kherson; IAEA Inspectors in Kyiv Amid More Attacks on Nuclear Plant

Facts

• Following Mon.'s announcement that Ukraine's long-awaited southern counteroffensive has begun, its armed forces claimed to have broken through several areas along the front line of Russian defences in the region of Kherson. The claim was supported by a video which appeared to show a Russian soldier in the midst of artillery fire complaining about a Ukrainian breakthrough. However, the advance has yet to be independently confirmed.
• In the wake of the announcement, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Monday: "If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee." He added: "The occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed."
• Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych tapered expectations and described the counteroffensive as a "slow operation to grind the enemy." He said: "Of course, many would like a large-scale offensive with news about the capture by our military of a settlement in an hour. But we don't fight like that ... funds are limited."
• Meanwhile, as inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reportedly arrived in Kyiv on Mon. ahead of a visit to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) this week, Russia and Ukraine again traded blame for fresh attacks on the plant on Tuesday.
• Russian-appointed officials in the plant's satellite town of Enerhodar alleged Ukrainian forces had struck the plant with "large-caliber artillery". The military-civilian administration said: "Following this, two explosions were recorded near a building storing spent fuel." The head of Ukraine's military-civilian administration in Zaporizhzhia, Oleksandr Starukh, alleged Russia was responsible. Russia and Ukraine also blame each other for a Mon. evening attack in Enerhodar that killed 10 civilians.
• Elsewhere, Ukrainian officials reported that at least five civilians were killed and seven more were injured in Russian shelling of the Kharkiv region. A further two civilians have been reported killed and four injured in Russian shelling in the Donetsk region in the last 24 hrs. Separatist officials from the Donetsk People's Republic reported one civilian was killed as a result of Ukrainian shelling.

Sources: Pravda, Guardian, Reuters, and Ukrinform.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Forbes. It's unclear how far Ukrainian forces might have pushed, but all signs indicate that the long-awaited southern counteroffensive has successfully started, particularly in the region of Kherson. Any offensive action is good news for Kyiv and, with luck, this is part of a wider counteroffensive that will shift the momentum of the war in Kyiv's favor.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by Tass. Reports of a successful Kherson counteroffensive are false. Moscow's forces were activated in Tavrichesky, but all Ukrainian attackers who failed to surrender were eliminated and the area is now back under Russian control. Kherson has been severed from Kyiv and life is gradually returning to normal under a Russian economic and legal framework.

Predictions