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US-Brokered Cease-fire Announced in Northeast Syria

Facts

• The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed fighters agreed to a cease-fire early on Wednesday in the northern city of Manbij after US mediation.^[1][2]
• SDF commander Mazloum Abdi announced that fighters of the Manbij Military Council, who had been responding to the attacks since Nov. 27, would withdraw from the area as soon as possible.^[1][3]
• The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused Turkish-backed factions of engaging in looting and burning homes in Manbij, including attacks on wounded soldiers in a hospital, though this could not be immediately verified.^[4]
• US Central Command Chief General Michael Kurilla visited US bases in northeast Syria, which the Kurdish-dominated SDF controls, to assess force protection measures and prevent the Islamic State (IS) from potentially exploiting the situation.^[5][6]
• US Sec. of State Antony Blinken is preparing to visit Turkey for discussions about Syria's future and potential agreements between the SDF and Ankara. The US has said it will continue to work with the SDF.^[4][6]
• Turkey has accused the SDF of being a front for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has fought an armed campaign in Turkey for decades. Turkey supports a loose coalition of militant factions in Syria under the Syrian National Army (SNA). Some of these groups, as well as the SDF, have been accused of committing war crimes.^[4][7][8]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]AA, ^[3]Hindustan Times, ^[4]The Telegraph, ^[5]Barron's, ^[6]Al Arabiya, ^[7]Human Rights Watch and ^[8]Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The New York Times. The SDF seeks to work toward stability in Syria and engage in a political process to find a productive solution to the country's many challenges, while also maintaining the fight against IS. Indeed, the SDF will continue to resist Turkey's attempts to destabilize Syria, as this could lead to an IS resurgence.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by AA. Everyone knows, including the US, that the SDF acts as a front for the PKK, a designated terrorist organization, and has caused severe strife and destruction in both Turkey and Syria. Turkey and its allies' actions are ultimately defensive, as the SDF has worked to create a terrorist safe haven along the Turkish border, which is simply unacceptable.

Report: US Immigration Hits Historic Peak Under Biden Administration

Facts

• According to a New York Times report, the net migration to the US between 2021 and 2023 averaged 2.4M people, marking the largest immigration surge in US history, surpassing even the immigration booms of the late 1800s and the early 1900s Ellis Island era.^[1][2]
• According to the report, which analyzed data from the Congressional Budget Office and Census Bureau, the foreign-born population reached 15.2% of the total population in 2023, up from 13.6% in 2020 and exceeding the previous peak of 14.8% recorded in 1890.^[1][3]
• Approximately 60% of immigrants entering the country since 2021 did so without legal authorization, according to Goldman Sachs analysis of government data.^[1][2]
• The immigration court system faces unprecedented backlogs, with over 3M pending cases as of December 2023, compared to just over half a million in 2016.^[4]
• Multiple factors were attributed to the surge, including policy changes under the Biden administration, turmoil in countries like Haiti, Ukraine, and Venezuela, and a growth of smuggler networks.^[1]
• Border crossing numbers decreased after Biden implemented stricter enforcement measures last June, with officials reporting a 40% drop shortly after. However, the report suggests migration could top 8M across his entire term.^[1][5][6]

Sources: ^[1]The New York Times, ^[2]FOX News, ^[3]Newsmax, ^[4]Straight Arrow News, ^[5]The Hill and ^[6]POLITICO.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by The New York Times and Washington Post. While certainly unprecedented, Joe Biden's welcoming immigration policies have also bolstered the economy by addressing labor shortages, driving innovation, and kickstarting a $7T GDP boost over the next decade. In contrast, Trump’s plans for mass deportations and strict trade measures will harm agriculture, increase food prices, and strain supply chains. Immigrants are essential for sustaining America's workforce and economic resilience.
• Republican narrative, as provided by PJ Media and X. Now that Biden is leaving office, the New York Times is finally allowed to acknowledge that his administration purposely flooded the nation with illegal immigrants. Despite knowing that immigration lowers service costs and benefits only wealthier Americans, as well as strains social services and reduces wage growth for blue-collar workers, Biden loosened and outright ignored federal laws to let 8M people into the country. This is an insult to American citizens.

Predictions

How many immigrants to the US will obtain lawful permanent resident status in the following fiscal years?

Shell, Greenpeace Settle North Sea Protest Lawsuit

Facts

• In the case between oil company Shell and environmental group Greenpeace, Greenpeace has agreed to donate £300K (US$382K) to the Royal National Lifeboat Institution, without accepting liability or paying money directly to Shell.^[1][2]
• The case stems from a January 2023 incident in which Greenpeace activists boarded Shell's White Marlin vessel near the Canary Islands, occupying it for 13 days to protest oil drilling.^[1][2][3]
• Shell initially sought damages ranging from £705,993 (US$900K), with Greenpeace potentially facing up to $11M in total damages and legal costs.^[4][5]
• As part of the agreement, Greenpeace agreed not to protest within 500 meters of three Shell North Sea sites for five years, and a fourth site for 10 years.^[2]
• The protest involved four activists using ropes to board the vessel from inflatable boats that pursued the ship at high speed.^[3][4]

Sources: ^[1]BBC News, ^[2]Barron's, ^[3]Sky News, ^[4]Marine Insight and ^[5]BNN Bloomberg.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Greenpeace International. This settlement represents a major victory for Greenpeace, showcasing its resilience against SLAPP lawsuits designed to silence criticism. By turning the lawsuit into a PR disaster for Shell and securing funding to fight climate change, Greenpeace has demonstrated the power of public and grassroots support. This success will embolden future actions to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for its dangerous environmental impact.
• Narrative B, as provided by Robert Yoho. Greenpeace's victory over Shell reflects performative activism rather than genuine environmental progress. Historical links to elite agendas, such as the Rockefeller family's climate narrative, suggest its motives are far from independent. Even its co-founder, Patrick Moore, has criticized the group for abandoning rationality and aligning with controversial climate claims. By perpetuating fear instead of addressing evidence-based solutions, Greenpeace undermines its credibility.

Predictions

When will peak oil production be reached worldwide?

South Korea: Police Raid Presidential Office, Ex-Minister Attempts Suicide

Facts

• South Korean police on Wednesday raided Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol's office as part of an investigation into his Dec. 3 martial law declaration. However, investigators were blocked from entering the main building.^[1][2]
• According to The Korea Times, investigators carried a search warrant to seize evidence — including minutes of Cabinet meetings held before and after Yoon's declaration — and identified Yoon as "the leader" of an alleged insurrection.^[3]
• Besides Yoon's office, the investigating team conducted searches-and-seizures at the National Police Agency, the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency, and the National Assembly Security Service.^[4]
• On Tuesday, Kwak Jong-geun, commander of the Army Special Warfare Command, testified that Yoon had ordered him "to quickly break down the door and drag out" lawmakers during the martial law decree vote.^[5][6]
• This comes as Yoon's former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun reportedly attempted suicide in custody and was later formally arrested on insurrection charges, along with two senior police officials, including the national police chief.^[1][7]
• Yoon has been banned from leaving the country and faces a criminal investigation for alleged treason. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is preparing a second impeachment bid, which, if successful, would allow Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to temporarily assume presidential responsibilities.^[8][9]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]Yonhap News Agency, ^[3]The Korea Times, ^[4]France 24, ^[5]The Guardian, ^[6]NBC, ^[7]The New York Times, ^[8]The Japan Times and ^[9]Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Bloomberg and Le Monde. Yoon's poorly timed decree was an illegal power grab and attempted coup that warrants criminal prosecution. With a long history of military-authoritarian rule, the country can't afford leadership mired in uncertainty. The depths of his political miscalculation have tested the resilience of South Korea's democracy and underscored the need for Yoon to relinquish his post and face the law for the greater good of the country.
• Narrative B, as provided by The Sunday Guardian and The Korea Times. The martial law declaration was necessary to protect South Korea from North Korean threats and maintain domestic stability. However, Yoon didn't wrest absolute authority by whatever means necessary; instead, he quickly rescinded the decree when it became clear it lacked public support. The country would be plunged into greater uncertainty if a patriot — who can defend himself before the Constitutional Court and is committed to the unification of the Korean peninsula — is impeached.

Predictions

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?

Trump Promises to Fast Track Permits for $1B+ US Investments

Facts

• US Pres.-elect Donald Trump announced Tuesday that under his incoming administration, any person or company investing $1B or more in the US would receive expedited permits and environmental approvals.^[1][2]
• The US currently receives approximately $177B annually in foreign direct investment, though this rate has been declining, according to Commerce Department data.^[3]
• This proposal, which would apply to both foreign and domestic investments, would affect various billion-dollar energy projects nationwide, including natural gas pipelines, export terminals, solar farms, and offshore wind turbines.^[4][5][6]
• The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal agencies to study environmental impacts before approving major projects. Trump's announcement came the same day the US Supreme Court heard a case involving the regulatory reach of NEPA.^[7]
• During Trump's first presidential term, he rolled back approximately 112 environmental rules, affecting greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and offshore drilling regulations.^[1]
• Previously, a bipartisan permitting reform plan, supported by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), had been proposed. It aims to expedite major energy and mineral projects, but its future is uncertain.^[4]

Sources: ^[1]Al Jazeera, ^[2]Truth Social, ^[3]Axios, ^[4]Newsmax, ^[5]Associated Press, ^[6]Breitbart and ^[7]The Hill.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by PJ Media. Trump is ready to work with anyone willing to make America richer, even if that means supporting traditional fossil fuels and alternative sources, including solar and geothermal. His strategy will promote innovation, energy independence, economic growth and lower costs by cutting red tape.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by The New Republic. This plan will destroy climate progress while giving more benefits to billionaires. Polluting industries will be the first in line to bypass critical protections, putting the environment at great risk. Long-term climate and public health goals will be destroyed.
• Narrative C, as provided by Hoover Institution. Trump must balance his focus on revitalizing fossil fuel industries with the growing demand for renewable energy infrastructure, partly driven by his predecessor's policies. While fossil fuel expansion supports energy independence and economic growth, maintaining momentum in renewable energy is crucial for fostering innovation.

Predictions

Will renewable energy have a higher energy production share in the US than combined fossil fuels and nuclear in any month before 2050?

Canada: Trudeau Survives Third No-Confidence Vote

Facts

• Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal government survived a no-confidence vote, 180 to 152, on Monday, as the Jagmeet Singh-led New Democrats opposed the motion brought by the Conservatives.^[1][2]
• This is the third failed parliamentary confidence vote since the Liberal-New Democrats deal collapsed in September. If successful, the vote would trigger a new federal election.^[1][3]
• On Tuesday, lawmakers approved CA$21.6B ($15.2B) in supplementary funding to the 2024 budget despite the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois objecting to additional spending.^[4][5]
• Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre highlighted reported tensions between Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland over increased spending, including a potential $250 rebate for people earning $150K or less.^[6][7][8]
• The country's 2023-24 fiscal year deficit has been projected at CA$46.8B ($33B), above the target of CA$40.1B ($28.36B) that Freeland set for the government last year. On Dec. 16, Ottawa will present its budget update, showing a revised deficit estimate.^[9][10]

Sources: ^[1]Global News, ^[2]House of Commons of Canada, ^[3]BBC News, ^[4]National Post, ^[5]Canada's National Observer, ^[6]CTV News, ^[7]The Globe and Mail, ^[8]Bloomberg, ^[9]CBC and ^[10]Reuters.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by TNC and Toronto Sun. The New Democrats have put their leader's interests ahead of the country's, as it's clear that they opted not to call for an early election before February 2025 to ensure that Singh will be eligible for a House of Commons pension. Until then, Trudeau will continue in office despite his administration blowing past its self-imposed deficit target.
• Left narrative, as provided by Toronto Star and Toronto Star. The New Democrats did end their deal with the Liberals, but that doesn't mean that they had to help the Conservatives topple the government. After all, the Liberals are still the lesser evil — and all the alarmism from the right wing over the country's finances, despite Canada having the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit in the G7, reasserts that.

Predictions

Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?

Over 300 Deadly Virus Samples Missing From Australian Lab

Facts

• Australia's Queensland government announced on Monday that hundreds of vials containing deadly viruses — including Hendra virus, Lyssavirus, and Hantavirus — went missing from the state-run Public Health Virology Laboratory in 2021.^[1][2]
• The breach was discovered in August 2023 when samples were found unaccounted for after being transferred — without proper documentation — between freezers during a breakdown. It's unclear whether the samples were stolen or destroyed.^[1][2][3]
• The missing materials include 100 vials of Hendra virus, 223 samples of Lyssavirus, and two samples of Hantavirus. While the Hendra virus — which mainly infects horses — has a 57% fatality rate in humans, all of these live viruses can be lethal to humans and animals.^[4]
• Queensland Health Minister Tim Nicholls has launched a "Part 9 investigation" to ensure no details have been overlooked in responding to the breach and appointed former Supreme Court Justice Martin Daubney to examine the incident and assess current laboratory protocols.^[5][6]
• He added that Queensland Health has implemented proactive measures, including retraining staff and conducting audits, to ensure proper storage and handling of materials.^[1][2]
• Chief Health Officer Dr. John Gerrard stated there's no evidence of public risk, adding, "virus samples would degrade very rapidly outside a low temperature freezer and become non-infectious."^[2][5]

Sources: ^[1]ABC, ^[2]FOX News, ^[3]Newsweek, ^[4]Daily Mail, ^[5]RNZ and ^[6]WION.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by FOX News. The breach represents a critical biosecurity lapse with potentially severe consequences, as these pathogens have fatality rates up to 100 times higher than COVID. Given the high risk to animals and livestock from all three viruses, the government needs to invest more in pathogen biosecurity and ensure greater transparency so such lapses are avoided in the future.
• Narrative B, as provided by The Queensland Cabinet and Ministerial Directory. The three pathogens can have very high fatality rates, but the risk to public safety remains minimal as they have limited capacity for person-to-person transmission, and there's no evidence of theft. Additionally, the viruses involved would quickly lose their ability to infect outside proper storage conditions. Queensland Health should be applauded for its thorough investigation.

Predictions

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Saudi Arabia Wins 2034 World Cup Bid

Facts

• FIFA officially confirmed Saudi Arabia as the host nation for the 2034 World Cup through an online congress vote, marking the first time the country will host soccer's premier tournament.^[1][2]
• The selection process was notably expedited, with Saudi Arabia emerging as the sole bidder after FIFA restricted eligibility to Asian and Oceanian nations and gave a limited window for submissions.^[1][3][4]
• Saudi Arabia's bid earned FIFA's highest score, 4.2 out of 5, despite giving it a "medium risk" on human rights concerns and with 11 of its 15 proposed stadiums not yet built. Critics highlight concerns about the kingdom's treatment of its 13.4M migrant workers.^[4][5][6]
• The kingdom plans massive infrastructure development, including building or renovating 11 stadiums and creating 185K hotel rooms, as part of its Vision 2030 economic diversification initiative.^[3][7]
• FIFA simultaneously confirmed Spain, Portugal, and Morocco as co-hosts for the 2030 World Cup, with three opening matches to be played in South America, through a combined voting process.^[1][2]
• The tournament timing remains uncertain due to summer temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F), potentially requiring a winter schedule similar to Qatar 2022, which could create conflicts with other sporting events.^[6]

Sources: ^[1]ESPN, ^[2]FOX News, ^[3]CNN, ^[4]The New York Times, ^[5]The Telegraph, ^[6]Daily Mail and ^[7]CBS.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Amnesty International. Awarding Saudi Arabia the 2034 FIFA World Cup represents a profound disregard for human rights and ethical governance. Watchdog groups have documented severe systemic abuses, including the exploitation and endangerment of migrant workers, pervasive repression, and entrenched discrimination. By proceeding without securing credible reforms, FIFA is prioritizing profits over accountability and human dignity.
• Narrative B, as provided by The New York Times. While criticisms of this decision are understandable, Saudi Arabia has proven its readiness to host through significant investments in infrastructure, cultural events, and sports. Vision 2030 also exemplifies the Crown Prince's commitment to modernizing the country, creating jobs, and promoting inclusivity, including in female sports. With passionate soccer fans and growing global engagement, Saudi Arabia offers a promising stage for the world's biggest sporting event.

Predictions

When will a club from a continent other than Europe or South America win the FIFA Club World Cup?

Coffee Prices Surge to 47-Year-High

Facts

• Prices of Arabica coffee beans, the world's most popular variety, have hit a 47-year high in New York trading this week, surging over 18% to $3.44 a pound reportedly due to severe weather damage to top grower Brazil's crop next year.^[1][2]
• Brazil is expected to produce 11M fewer bags of coffee beans in 2024, while overall global production may fall short by 8.5M bags in the 2025-26 season, partly due to a drought in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta beans.^[3][4]
• The price of Robusta, a slightly lower quality bean, also hit a 47-year high Friday. In April, cocoa prices reached a record high of $11,722 a ton as supplies from Ghana and Ivory Coast fell.^[5][6]
• Coffee prices have also been fueled by Brazilian farmers delaying deliveries allegedly to raise prices, leading to short-term supply issues.^[6][7]
• The previous peak in coffee prices was caused in 1977 by a frost that killed over 1B coffee bean trees. Climate change has reportedly caused Arabica coffee futures to soar by 80% this year.^[5][8]
• The rise has also come amid growing consumer demand, implying lower chances of prices dropping at least until mid-2025. China, in particular, has emerged as a rapidly growing coffee market, reportedly driving global prices.^[9][10]

Sources: ^[1]Australian Financial Review, ^[2]The Irish News, ^[3]BeanScene, ^[4]ABC, ^[5]NBC, ^[6]Reuters, ^[7]BBC News, ^[8]Finimize, ^[9]The Guardian and ^[10]Global Coffee Report.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Los Angeles Times and The Times. Climate change is reshaping the global coffee landscape, transforming a beloved morning ritual into a stark reminder of environmental vulnerability. Devastating droughts and rising temperatures are decimating coffee crops in key producing nations like Vietnam and Ethiopia, driving prices skyward and threatening the livelihoods of millions of farmers who depend on this delicate, temperature-sensitive crop.
• Narrative B, as provided by Coffee Intelligence and The Grocer. Rising coffee prices aren't a crisis, but a critical correction of a long-exploited market for this culinary commodity. Farmers finally receive fair compensation as prices climb, challenging multinational corporations' narrative of doom. This shift represents a necessary economic rebalancing, where the actual value of coffee — and the labor behind it — is finally being recognized and respected by a world waking up to smell the coffee.

Predictions

How much greenhouse gas will Brazil emit in 2030, in CO2e tonnes?

Paraguay's Anti-Drug Agency Halts Cooperation With DEA

Facts

• Paraguay's National Anti-Drug Secretariat (SENAD) has unilaterally halted its partnership with the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) — a move that will leave only officials from the national police in Paraguay's US-backed elite Sensitive Intelligence Unit (SIU).^[1][2]
• The three-page document terminating cooperation was made public on Tuesday. Last week, The Washington Post reported that US officials had been informed of the decision — which is set to take effect next year if not reconsidered before then.^[1][3]
• According to the Paraguayan government, this shift is merely a restructuring designed to boost anti-drug cooperation with the DEA. However, officials from both countries claim that it would compromise high-profile, complex investigations as the SENAD was the main agency responsible for them.^[2][3]
• Over the past years, Paraguay has made record cocaine busts, including its largest-ever drug seizure — 4 tons of cocaine — in July, and reported that cocaine profits were being laundered through luxury properties, soccer clubs, and churches linked to politicians.^[2][4]
• The South American country has worked closely with the US against drug trafficking and organized crime since 2008, but their relationship has become unstable, particularly after former president Horacio Cartes was hit with sanctions by the US last year.^[1][3]

Sources: ^[1]MercoPress, ^[2]The Paraguay Post, ^[3]Washington Post and ^[4]Associated Press.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Agencia de Informacion Paraguaya. Paraguay will always be an ally of the US in the fight against drug trafficking and other transnational crimes. Rather than undermining their partnership, this shift will strengthen their cooperation and deliver even better results.
• Narrative B, as provided by InSight Crime. It's hard not to think that this decision has something to do with links between politics and drug trafficking that have been exposed in Paraguay due to the cooperation between the SENAD and the DEA. This decision is surely not in the best interests of the country.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by The Ice Man and Paul Spencer. Latin American countries should have never put their full trust in the US on fighting drugs. Strong evidence suggests that CIA and military contractors have actually facilitated drug trafficking in the region for decades, with former Navy SEAL Shawn Ryan confessing to helping to build drug networks in South America on behalf of the CIA. Sovereign countries should never be used as bases for corrupt, larger countries to conduct criminal business.