Croatia: HDZ Party Wins Most Seats, Not Majority

0:00

/1861

1×

Facts

• Croatia's ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party has won 61 of the 151 assembly seats. The center-left Social Democrats (SD) party won 42 seats, the right-wing nationalist Homeland Movement secured 14, an ultra-conservative party took 11, and the green-left won 10.¹
• While this is the HDZ's third consecutive win, without a majority, the party must form a coalition government. Homeland hasn't yet said whether it would join a right-leaning or left-leaning coalition, and the SDP said it's prepared for weeks or months of talks.²
• Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, of HDZ, has been in power since 2016, though his government has faced labor shortages, one of the lowest average monthly incomes in the Eurozone, and migration issues.³
• HDZ seemed headed toward an easy victory until March when left-wing populist Pres. Zoran Milanović broke with customs and campaigned for the SDP. A court ordered Milanović to step down before campaigning, but he dismissed the ruling.⁴
• Plenković has accused Milanović of being 'pro-Russian' due to his opposition to the EU backing Ukraine. Milanović, meanwhile, dubbed Plenković the 'godfather of crime.'³
• It seems no party wishes to coalesce with HDZ, but for the SDP to form a 71-seat coalition of its own, it will have to join hands with more than just close allies like the green left. Voters have seemingly distanced themselves from the HDZ amid corruption allegations, which have reportedly seen 30 ministers resign.⁵

Sources: ¹barrons.com, ²Guardian, ³Dw.Com, ⁴Al Jazeera and ⁵POLITICO.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by Friedrich Naumann Foundation. Plenković has made poor decisions regarding ministerial appointments, leaving his party vulnerable to the emerging far-right in the country. However, if he stops playing 'who's the bigger alpha male' with Milanović, he can still bring together center-left parties to deter xenophobic, anti-EU populists.
• Right narrative, as provided by Europeanconservative. After dominating Croatian politics since 1991, the HDZ is showing signs of weakness. Not only has the patriotic Homeland Movement gained two seats, but the liberal SDP is also tired of the status quo. A significant bipartisan faction of anti-EU parties can now use their popularity to stop the EU's disastrous gender, climate, and migration policies.