COP27 Report: CO2 Pollution to Hit All-Time High This Year

Facts

• Fresh data released Friday at the COP27 climate summit show that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise 1% in 2022 to reach an all-time record.
• According to the Global Carbon Project, this level corresponds to 37.5B tons, a new record. If the trend continues, humanity could pump enough CO2 into the atmosphere to warm Earth to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures — the limit set in the 2015 Paris climate agreement — in just nine years.
• The aviation industry is recovering and is on its way to pre-COVID levels, causing emissions from oil to rise more than 2% compared with last year. Emissions from coal, projected by some analysts to have peaked in 2014, project to have a record year in 2022.
• The report's findings were described by some scientists as "bleak" and "deeply depressing," and will add pressure on COP27 to produce significant and immediate results.
• China’s emissions are projected to decrease by approximately 0.9% this year, thanks to the rapid growth of wind and solar power. Emissions in Europe are also dropping by about 0.8%, largely explained by a steep fall in Russian natural gas consumption. In the US, the emissions are estimated to rise by 1.5%, driven by a surge in natural gas. The largest increase in fossil fuel emissions is found in India, up nearly 6%.
• The report suggested that emissions from coal and gas were largely driven by the war in Ukraine, while emissions from oil were spurred by the recovering pandemic economy.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Nature, France24, Guardian, New York Times, and DW.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Atlantic Council. Much is at stake in Sharm el-Sheikh. Per UN reports, climate impacts are causing global suffering on a rampant scale, and the expectation is that all countries will increase their ambitions to stay below the +1.5°C mark. COP27 must showcase commitment to a $100B goal and agree on a robust climate finance arrangement for the future.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Climate Champions. We are in the middle of an interlinked climate, energy, nature, and food crises. Despite small glimmers of progress, the world is still nowhere near the scale and pace of climate action needed to secure a net zero and resilient world by 2050. National governments must radically and rapidly strengthen their climate actions before 2030 — this new report shows how "behind the eight ball" we are.
• Narrative C, as provided by Forbes. The catastrophic framing of climate change does far more harm than good, not only by impacting the mental health of our youth, but by alienating and polarizing large portions of the population and distracting from other important issues. Climate alarmism must be taken with a grain of salt.

Predictions