Concerns of Full-Scale War Between Israel and Hezbollah Grow

Facts

• As the war in Gaza continues, concerns are growing that tensions on the Lebanese border between Israel and Hezbollah, a powerful Iranian-backed political party and armed group, could escalate into a full-scale conflict. This week, Israel's military spokesman said that the likelihood of a war with Hezbollah is increasing.¹
• Israel is currently demanding that Hezbollah withdraw its forces six miles from the border, with its officials indicating that the country is open to a diplomatic solution but would use force if necessary. Axios has reported that Israeli leaders are pushing for the US to pressure Hezbollah into accepting its demands.²
• France, the former colonial ruler in Lebanon, has already intervened diplomatically to de-escalate tensions between the two sides. Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna visited Beirut on Monday to hold talks with the Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.³
• France is currently seeking to broker an agreement that could potentially see the implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which banned armed factions and unauthorized weapons south of Lebanon's Litani River in the aftermath of the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war.⁴
• Lebanon, which experienced a staggering financial crisis in late 2019 that saw the country's currency and banking system collapse, would be dramatically affected by another war between Hezbollah and Israel, with the World Bank warning Thursday that the current border conflict could put Lebanon back into a recession.⁵
• The fighting on the Lebanese border, which erupted soon after Hamas launched its Oct. 7 surprise attack, has reportedly killed around 20 civilians, including journalists and children, and over 100 Hezbollah fighters.⁶

Sources: ¹The libertarian institute, ²Newsweek, ³PBS NewsHour, ⁴Reuters (a), ⁵Associated Press and ⁶Reuters (b).

Narratives

• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem post. If Hezbollah doesn't withdraw its forces from the border with Israel, Israel will be forced to take military action that would destroy Lebanon. Thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes since Oct. 7, and this is simply unacceptable. Israeli civilians have a right to live in their homes without fear of terrorist attacks. Hezbollah must understand that what has happened in Gaza can also happen in Lebanon.
• Anti-Israel narrative, as provided by Al mayadeen. Hezbollah is the one in control of the situation as Israel isn't ready for a war with the Lebanese Resistance, which is far stronger than Hamas and possesses a far larger and more technologically advanced arsenal that could devastate Israel. Additionally, a war with Hezbollah would quickly snowball into a full-scale regional war, something that Israel is simply not prepared for.
• Cynical narrative, as provided by NPR Online News. Ultimately, neither side wants to see escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Hezbollah is well aware that neither its supporters — many of which reside in south Lebanon — nor Lebanese society as a whole can tolerate a war with Israel when the country is already in utter disarray. On its side, Israel knows that Hezbollah is far stronger than Hamas and that a multi-front war could be too much for its forces.

Predictions