Colombia Suspends Peace Talks With ELN Guerrillas After Attack on Army Base

Facts

• Colombia announced on Wednesday that peace talks with the leftist guerrilla National Liberation Army (ELN) have been put on hold until the rebel group provides an 'unequivocal demonstration of peace.'^[1]
• This comes after the country's president, Gustavo Petro, blamed the Maoist group for an explosives attack on a military base in the department of Arauca, near Venezuela, that left two soldiers dead and 27 others injured on Tuesday.^[2][3]
• Petro added that the incident 'practically' ends the peace process in 'blood,' comparing it to the bombing of a police academy in Bogotá that killed 22 cadets in 2019 and also prompted peace negotiations to collapse.^[2][3]
• Talks restarted in 2022, but have been in crisis since February, as Bogotá had sought parallel negotiations with the dissident ELN faction Comuneros del Sur, which were formally authorized on Monday.^[1][4]
• Violence has escalated since a bilateral cease-fire between the Colombian government and the ELN expired early last month, including attacks on key infrastructure and the killing of two other soldiers in Arauca on Sept. 1.^[4][5]
• The ELN is the largest active armed group in the country with an estimated 6K fighters, and has spread into rural areas since the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) signed a peace with the government in 2016.^[5][6]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]The City Paper Bogotá, ^[3]Colombiaone, ^[4]InSight Crime, ^[5]Al Jazeera and ^[6]Associated Press.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by Justice For Colombia and Foreign Policy. Unlike past peace processes, Petro's ambitious Total Peace sought to finally bring the country's decades-long armed conflict to an end, ensuring that guerrillas would not be persecuted once demobilized and disarmed. That talks with the ELN have now been called off doesn't discredit the plan, as there has been success in talks with other groups.
• Right narrative, as provided by Global Americans and Impunity Observer. Total Peace was always a failure waiting to happen, as there were no incentives to stop armed groups continuing to expand their territorial control. It's certain that Bogotá did sign cease-fires with some guerrilla groups, but the truth is that violence has risen under Petro.

Predictions