Coffee Prices Surge to 47-Year-High

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Facts

  • Prices of Arabica coffee beans, the world's most popular variety, have hit a 47-year high in New York trading this week, surging over 18% to $3.44 a pound reportedly due to severe weather damage to top grower Brazil's crop next year.[1][2]
  • Brazil is expected to produce 11M fewer bags of coffee beans in 2024, while overall global production may fall short by 8.5M bags in the 2025-26 season, partly due to a drought in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta beans.[3][4]
  • The price of Robusta, a slightly lower quality bean, also hit a 47-year high Friday. In April, cocoa prices reached a record high of $11,722 a ton as supplies from Ghana and Ivory Coast fell.[5][6]
  • Coffee prices have also been fueled by Brazilian farmers delaying deliveries allegedly to raise prices, leading to short-term supply issues.[6][7]
  • The previous peak in coffee prices was caused in 1977 by a frost that killed over 1B coffee bean trees. Climate change has reportedly caused Arabica coffee futures to soar by 80% this year.[5][8]
  • The rise has also come amid growing consumer demand, implying lower chances of prices dropping at least until mid-2025. China, in particular, has emerged as a rapidly growing coffee market, reportedly driving global prices.[9][10]

Sources: [1]Australian Financial Review, [2]The Irish News, [3]BeanScene, [4]ABC, [5]NBC, [6]Reuters, [7]BBC News, [8]Finimize, [9]The Guardian and [10]Global Coffee Report.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Los Angeles Times and The Times. Climate change is reshaping the global coffee landscape, transforming a beloved morning ritual into a stark reminder of environmental vulnerability. Devastating droughts and rising temperatures are decimating coffee crops in key producing nations like Vietnam and Ethiopia, driving prices skyward and threatening the livelihoods of millions of farmers who depend on this delicate, temperature-sensitive crop.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Coffee Intelligence and The Grocer. Rising coffee prices aren't a crisis, but a critical correction of a long-exploited market for this culinary commodity. Farmers finally receive fair compensation as prices climb, challenging multinational corporations' narrative of doom. This shift represents a necessary economic rebalancing, where the actual value of coffee — and the labor behind it — is finally being recognized and respected by a world waking up to smell the coffee.