CIA Chief to Discuss Hostage Deal with Qatari, Egyptian, and Israeli Officials

Facts

• Israeli and American officials said on Thursday that CIA Director Bill Burns will travel to Europe in the coming days to discuss another hostage exchange deal with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, and senior Israeli intelligence officials, such as Mossad director David Barnea.¹
• As Israeli forces pushed deeper into Khan Younis in southern Gaza, Qatar and Egypt have played a crucial role in negotiations. An Israeli proposal from earlier this week reportedly included a two-month ceasefire and a guarantee to allow senior Hamas leaders inside Gaza to leave the strip in exchange for the hostages, though it did not address ending the war completely — something Hamas has indicated is necessary for any agreement.²
• As negotiations potentially progress, comments allegedly made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu generated controversy on Wednesday. Netanyahu, according to Israeli media, called Qatar's role in the conflict 'problematic,' pointing to the country's financial support for Hamas. Qatar said it was 'appalled' and that such comments are 'destructive to the efforts to save innocent lives.'³
• A senior Hamas official, in response to similar comments made by controversial Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich accusing Qatar of being 'the biggest obstacle for returning the hostages,' said that Qatar had helped advance negotiations. The Hamas official alleged that Smotrich's comments reflected Israel's policy to block a possible agreement to release hostages.⁴
• The negotiations have become increasingly controversial in Israel, with some families of the hostages protesting humanitarian aid delivery at the Kerem Shalom crossing for a second day in a row on Thursday, stating that their aim was 'stopping aid to Hamas until all hostages return.' On Wednesday, only nine aid trucks passed through Kerem Shalom, with the remaining 114 being redirected through Egypt.⁵
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed over 25K people in the Gaza Strip, the majority of whom were women and children. The war has also created a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in the strip. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).⁶

Sources: ¹Axios, ²The Washington Post, ³BBC News, ⁴The Times of Israel, ⁵New York Times and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by The Nation. Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over three months and 25K dead Palestinians, Israel has failed to release hostages via military operations, to kill Hamas's top leaders, or to create conditions advantageous to ending this long drawn-out conflict. Even then, if Israel did manage to achieve the majority of its war goals, it still would be left without a clear plan of action for the day after the war. Destroying a group like Hamas is unfeasible, and Netanyahu has dug Israel into a hole that it will have a tough time climbing out of. Israel should accept a comprehensive ceasefire.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Daily Beast. Though this war has not been easy, Israel has made steady progress in Gaza, first neutralizing Gaza City before moving on to other population centers like Khan Younis. Israel has substantially degraded Hamas's military capabilities and leadership and even partially degraded elite Hezbollah units stationed along Israel's northern border, greatly increasing its leverage in negotiations. Indeed, as Israel's enemies should recognize, Israel's raw military power should not even be up for debate, and the country will fight and negotiate as it sees fit to achieve its goals.

Predictions