Chinese Spy Plane Violates Japanese Airspace for the First Time

Facts

• Japan has alleged that a Chinese Y-9 surveillance plane violated its airspace on Monday, calling the first such direct violation 'utterly unacceptable.'^[1]
• Chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Tuesday that the spy plane violated Japan's airspace near the uninhabited Danjo archipelago near Kyushu island.^[2]
• The incursion reportedly lasted two minutes. Japan has in recent weeks reported multiple interceptions of Chinese ships, drones, and surveillance planes.^[3]
• Japanese fighter jets scrambled to counter Monday's intrusion but there was no confrontation. Japan also summoned China's charge d’affairs in Tokyo in protest.^[4]
• Japan has reportedly been closely monitoring the Chinese military, and allegedly scrambled jets nearly 669 times between April 2023 and March 2024, most of them Chinese.^[5]
• In an apparent reversal of its post-World War 'pacifist' policy, Japan has been increasing its defense spending, reportedly to acquire “counterstrike” capabilities.^[6]

Sources: ^[1]BBC News, ^[2]Ft, ^[3]Independent, ^[4]CNN, ^[5]Al Jazeera and ^[6]Guardian.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Bloomberg. Increasing Chinese military aggression and assertiveness in recent years has been alarming. For neighboring Japan, this is a matter of existential threat, pushing it to bolster its military capabilities and deepen its alliance with the US. Japan must rapidly fortify its islands and acquire offensive weapons. The specter of Chinese expansionism could also give Japan a role in regional security.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by People. Japan is paranoid about China. More significantly, it is using China as an excuse for its own military expansion. Exaggerating the 'China threat' and interfering in China's internal affairs, Japan is denying the peaceful nature of China's development policy and defensive military stance. It is likely to use China as a false flag to justify its own ambitions.

Predictions