Chinese Ship Suspected of Severing Cables in Baltic Sea

Facts

• Suspicions over who or what was responsible for the severing of two communications cables in the Baltic Sea this past week have narrowed in on a Chinese vessel, though authorities from the multiple governments investigating the incidents have yet to publicly assign blame.^[1]
• Following reports that Russia's capacity to carry out such acts as part of a wider sabotage effort had expanded, initial reporting on the severing of the two internet cables — running between Lithuania-Sweden and Finland-Germany — linked Russia to the incidents but fell short of directly blaming the country.^[2]
• Those suspicions now appear to be unfounded, as officials from Denmark and Sweden have confirmed that the Chinese-flagged Yi Peng 3 vessel is a ship of interest. Nonetheless, the possibility of other explanations hasn't been ruled out.^[3]
• US and Western intelligence sources who spoke to CNN confirmed that the Yi Peng 3 was likely the ship responsible, but stated that no links between the vessel and a state entity that would authorize such acts have been established at this stage.^[4]
• At a press conference on Wednesday, Lin Jian, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry, said he was 'not aware of the situation,' adding that China 'has always fully fulfilled its flag state obligations and requires Chinese ships to strictly abide by relevant laws and regulations.'^[4]
• Last year, a similar incident took place in which China conceded that a Hong Kong-flagged vessel was responsible for damaging a gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, but maintained it was an accident after the vessel dragged its anchor across the seabed.^[5]

Sources: ^[1]Guardian, ^[2]CNN (a), ^[3]France24, ^[4]CNN (b) and ^[5]Lowy Institute.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Guardian. European officials have narrowed in on a Chinese vessel and, given this was most likely an act of deliberate sabotage, it is being investigated extremely seriously. However, we will need to wait for the outcome of such investigations before anything can be stated with any certainty.
• Narrative B, as provided by CNN. While a Chinese vessel was likely responsible for the severing of these cables, early signs indicate that this was likely an accident rather than a malicious act. Numerous cables have been damaged in the past by ships dragging their anchors across the seabed, and there's no reason to unnecessarily escalate tensions given this context.

Predictions