China's Xi in France for First European Trip in 5 Years

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Facts

• Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping has kicked off his first European tour in five years by meeting with French Pres. Emmanuel Macron and European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen on Monday.¹
• During talks, the two European leaders urged China to use its influence on Russia to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. Chinese state media reported that Xi stressed that his country 'has been working vigorously' to facilitate peace.²
• Macron and von der Leyen also presented their trade concerns to Xi, pointing to the need to protect European companies and economies from alleged Chinese market distortions.³
• The EU has launched a probe into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, amid concerns they could undermine competition and harm European EV makers.⁴
• Beijing has responded with an anti-dumping probe of its own into European wine-based liquors, largely targeting cognac producers in France. On Monday, Xi called on China and the EU to remain partners and deepen their communications.⁵
• Later this week, Xi is scheduled to travel to Belgrade for talks with his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vučić, and to Budapest to meet Hungary's Viktor Orbán. Both countries are big recipients of Chinese investments and have been sympathetic to Russia.⁶

Sources: ¹CNN, ²English, ³Financial Times, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵POLITICO and ⁶Guardian.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by POLITICO. Despite the niceties and pomp surrounding the state visit, an enormous trade war is brewing behind the scenes. We can expect Macron to be tough on Xi — tightening the screws on him for China's support to Russia, as well as its damaging trade practices that are hurting the EU economy.
• Narrative B, as provided by Bloomberg. While there are major disagreements between France and China, if anyone is expecting frosty exchanges or a political bust-up, they are mistaken. China is a master of carefully crafted diplomacy and will seek to use this to serve its interests. Meanwhile, Macron can be expected to lay on the charm offensive for the world's second-biggest economy.

Predictions