China Urges Myanmar to Cooperate on Border Stability

Facts

• Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Nong Rong has called on Myanmar to 'cooperate' to 'maintain stability' along both countries' borders after a Myanmar rebel group claimed the trade town of Chinshwehaw last week.¹
• Thousands of Myanmar nationals have fled the country's province of Yunnan following the beginning of 'Operation 1027' by the ethnic minority 'Three Brotherhood' Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance, the Arakan Army, and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army in the northern state of Shan.²
• The latest UN statistics claim that approximately 23K people have now been forced from their homes due to fighting near the China-Myanmar border. Nong called for Myanmar to guarantee the security of 'Chinese border area residents' as part of a visit to Myanmar this past weekend.³
• As part of the visit, Nong also visited a 493 miles (793 km) natural gas pipeline — connecting Myanmar's Ramree Island on its west coast with China's city Ruili within its Yunnan Province.⁴
• The border shared by Myanmar and China is approximately 2000 km (1250 miles). Nong's comments described China as a 'friendly' neighbor to Myanmar while asking for all parties to conflict resolution through diplomacy.⁵
• Myanmar's government, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, gained power in February 2021 following a military coup. The north of Myanmar is planned to receive a $1B rail line as part of Beijing's $1T Belt and Road Initiative, while China and Myanmar see approximately $1.8B in trade annually.¹

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Radio Free Asia, ³Hong Kong Free Press, ⁴Reuters and ⁵Yahoo Finance.

Narratives

• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Firstpost. Current events in Myanmar will have Beijing worried, particularly with conflict escalating to the extent of key trade locations now being lost to a rebel offensive. Having committed vast amounts of money to its Belt and Road Initiative as well as its neighbor's military regime, growing violence in Myanmar places future PRC plans at risk. Consequently, it's likely that China will put to an end any future tests of the authority of Myanmar's junta; there is too much to lose for China not to ensure regional success.
• Narrative B, as provided by The Irrawaddy. As long as Myanmar remains in a fluid state of weakness, it's a neighboring country that the PRC may influence and shape at will. Chinese weapons are extremely prevalent in Myanmar's border areas. Current fighting in Myanmar's north may play to Beijing's advantage, despite continued public rhetoric of peace and reconciliation. The PRC could certainly gain a Machiavellian foothold in its Southeast Asian neighbor.