China Urges Estonia Not to Allow Opening of Taiwan Office

Facts

• China's Foreign Ministry has urged Estonia not to allow Taiwan to open any official organizations in the Baltic nation, following reports that Chinese Ambassador Guo Xiaomei has threatened to leave the country if a representative office is opened.¹
• During a cabinet meeting last week, the Baltic nation examined its China policy and decided to allow Taiwan to open a nondiplomatic representative office. Its objective is to strengthen economic and cultural links with the self-governing island while still adhering to the One China policy.²
• China has stated that it is opposed to such a move — which comes amid Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu's visit to the three Baltic states this week — and considers it an affront to its sovereignty. Taiwan has already established offices in Latvia and Lithuania.³
• China claims sovereignty over the democratically-ruled Taiwan, which is denied by the Taipei government. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated during a regular press briefing that Beijing 'urges' Estonia to 'abide' by the One China principle in order 'safeguard... bilateral relations' between the two.¹
• Margus Tsahkna, Estonia's foreign minister, told the press after the Cabinet meeting last week that, like 'other countries of the EU,' Estonia was 'ready' to accept a 'nondiplomatic economic or cultural representation' from Taiwan — although the minister didn't provide a timeframe.⁴
• The Foreign Ministry of Taiwan announced last week that negotiations were still in progress, and that neither party had decided on the establishment of a representative office in Estonia.³

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Associated Press, ³MSN and ⁴Washington Post.

Narratives

• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. A handful of gutsy European countries have attempted to defy the One China principle, with the latest now being Estonia. While in and of themselves, these countries lack the power to make any meaningful difference, such actions are a clear provocation of China's sovereignty. Estonia's behavior is by no means an unintentional mistake.
• Anti-China narrative, as provided by The Asahi Shimbun. China has clearly overreacted. The Estonian government has publicly declared that it stands firm in its One China policy. Similarly to numerous other EU countries, such as its two Baltic neighbors, Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia is solely interested in establishing a trade representation with the sole purpose of enhancing trade and cultural cooperation. This is a tempest in a teapot.

Predictions