Cairo: Hamas Arrives, Netanyahu Rejects Sending Officials Back

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Facts

  • A day after Israeli officials were in Egypt for negotiations regarding another hostage release deal and an extended pause in fighting in the Gaza Strip, a Hamas official said that a delegation from the group was expected in Cairo on Wednesday for discussions with Egyptian and Qatari mediators.1
  • The lack of a breakthrough during Tuesday's talks between Israeli, Egyptian, Qatari, and US officials has stoked growing concerns that Israeli forces will push into the southern Gaza city of Rafah on the Egyptian border — where over 1M displaced Palestinians are sheltering, largely in tent camps.2
  • Axios reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided not to send the Israeli delegation back to Cairo for further talks on Thursday. Unnamed Israeli officials said that Mossad director David Barnea and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar advised Netanyahu to send the delegation, but he declined.3
  • Netanyahu's office released a statement on Wednesday saying that negotiations can only progress when Hamas changes its position. The statement claimed that, during Tuesday's talks in Cairo, Hamas did not submit a revised proposal and Israel would not accept Hamas' 'delusional demands.'4
  • Regarding humanitarian aid in Gaza, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Tuesday that Israel will block shipments of flour to Gaza, as the logistics would be handled by the UN's primary Palestinian refugee agency, the UNRWA, which Israel claims is infiltrated by Hamas. Smotrich said another aid distribution mechanism would be found.5
  • Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed over 28K people in the Gaza Strip, the majority of whom were women and children. The war has also created a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).6

Sources: 1Al Arabiya, 2Reuters, 3Axios, 4The Times of Israel, 5The New York Times and 6Euronews.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CBS. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu is going too far with the war in Gaza, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises and compromise as needed so that another extended truce can take effect, which will hopefully lead to a more permanent resolution to this conflict. The Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by The Jerusalem Post. Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but Pres. Joe Biden needs to take a step back from his criticisms of Israel's Prime Minister. Netanyahu is a complicated figure, and Biden has a re-election campaign to worry about, which has created understandable tension between the two. However, Biden must understand that he should be pressuring Hamas terrorists — who have not made a single positive step in finding a compromise — instead of Israel. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by The Nation. As Israel's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated, the Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal campaign. Regardless of how the administration tries to spin it, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent ceasefire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Indeed, Israel's war on Gaza would be unsustainable without US support, and Biden should enact concrete policy to stop the violence.

Predictions