Bulgaria: GERB-UDF Wins Most Seats in Snap Vote, Fails to Secure Majority

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Facts

  • The center-right GERB-UDF coalition, under the leadership of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, has emerged as the largest group in Bulgaria's 240-seat parliament following an early vote on Sunday.[1][2]
  • With all ballots counted, GERB-UDF had received 26.38% of the votes. Eight parties and groups entered parliament, with the WCC-DB coalition coming second (with 14.2% of the vote) and pro-Russia nationalist Revival party third (with 13.38%).[2][3]
  • This means that the long-ruling GERB and its allies have secured 66 seats, short of the required majority but enough for Borissov to receive a presidential mandate to form government. If he fails, the mandate will be passed to the second-largest party.[4][5]
  • Given that both Borissov and his main challenger, former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov of the liberal anti-corruption WCC-DB, have pledged not to work with Revival, the country's political stalemate is likely to persist.[5][6]
  • Since 2020, Bulgaria has seen seven parliamentary elections fail to yield a stable administration and multiple short-lived governments that could find no lasting political balance.[6][7]
  • The deadlock has affected the country's economy and foreign policy, delaying its plans to join the eurozone to late next year or early 2026 and putting billions of euros in EU recovery funds at risk.[5][8]

Sources: [1]Balkaninsight, [2]The Sofia Globe, [3]Novinite.com, [4]Europeanconservative, [5]Bloomberg, [6]Financial Times, [7]Al Jazeera and [8]Associated Press.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Euractiv. Borissov and his coalition have multiple options to form a government in Bulgaria, including seeking coalition with either the WCC-DB or the fourth-placed DPS-New Beginning to form a minority government. This course of action however, wouldn't solve the issue that any potential government would continue to be as unstable as those which have precedent it.
  • Narrative B, as provided by RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. There's only one way out of this political crisis — GERB working together with the reformist WCC-DB in a pro-EU coalition while sidelining Delyan Peevski, the figure responsible for the deadlock. Despite Peevski's influence, efforts must be made to unravel him and his disruptive influence from the centre of Bulgarian politics.

Predictions