British PM Sunak Avoids Wipeout in By-Elections

Facts

• The UK’s governing Conservative Party has lost two seats in the House of Commons but retained former PM Boris Johnson's old constituency following the results of three by-elections confirmed on Friday.¹
• The constituency of Selby and Ainsty saw Labour overturn a 20,137 Tory majority — the largest Conservative majority to be flipped in a by-election since 1945.²
• Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats overturned an over 19K Tory majority in the constituency of Somerton and Frome, gaining a majority of 11,008 votes in a 29% swing away from the Tories.³
• Despite the two losses, the Conservatives won a victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip — Johnson's former constituency — from Labour by a slim margin of 495 votes.⁴
• The victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was attributed by both Labour and Conservatives to Labour London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plans to expand the ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ) to the outer London boroughs.⁵
• The results come as Sunak has been reported to have decided on a November 2024 date for the next general election, with an election needing to be called before January 2025.⁶

Sources: ¹BBC News, ²Yahoo News, ³ITV News, ⁴FT, ⁵LBC and ⁶Express.co.uk.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by Mirror. Despite holding onto Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Sunak has been left reeling following disastrous voting swings against the Tories in all three constituencies. While there will be disappointment in the Labour camp following the impact of Khan’s Ulez plans, there remain clear signals that the UK is simply fed up with the Conservative’s disastrous premiership.
• Right narrative, as provided by Spectator (UK). Sunak must be breathing a sigh of relief following the retention of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Although the victory cannot hide the pain of the bigger picture, London’s clear rejection of the Ulez extension planned by Sadiq Khan is an opportunity for the Tories to expose internal Labour division before the next general election.

Predictions