British Intelligence: Ukraine Front Lines Remain Largely Static

Facts

• The latest intelligence briefing from Britain's defense ministry published on Saturday assessed that most of the front line has remained static over the past week, concluding that both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will struggle to make serious gains going forward.¹
• "Over the last week, most of the front line has remained static," the defense ministry said. "However, in the south, Ukrainian forces have continued their advance along the course of the Mokri Yaly river, securing the village of Urozhaine in the face of stiff Russian resistance."¹
• It added: "In the north, Russian forces have continued probing attacks in the Kupiansk area but achieved no significant advances."¹
• Finally, the assessment concluded: "Across the front, both sides confront a similar challenge: attempting to defeat well-entrenched forces while having limited uncommitted forces to open new assaults."¹
• Amid such analysis — including a Washington Post report in the week that predicted that Ukraine will fail to achieve the main goal of its counteroffensive — one US official told Politico that the government is increasingly asking itself: "If we acknowledge we’re not going to do this forever, then what are we going to do?"²
• Others remained more optimistic, however. At a Pentagon briefing with reporters on Friday, Gen. James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe and Africa, said: "It’s definite progress [for Ukraine], but it’s slow progress," adding that "slow progress is good, better than the alternatives."²

Sources: ¹Kyiv Post and ²POLITICO.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The Washington Post. Ukraine will likely fail to make significant advances in its counteroffensive and is expected to fall well short of its stated goals. Even if Ukraine is able to penetrate Russia's multi layered defenses, how much further would these forces realistically be able to advance?
• Narrative B, as provided by U.S. News & World Report. While the Ukrainian offensive may be advancing slowly against well-prepared Russian defensive lines, they are continuing to push forward and have gained momentum in several axes of attack. Ukraine is still able to achieve its goals.

Predictions