Brazil’s Lula Heads to China Seeking Deeper Economic Ties

Facts

• Brazil's Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva embarked on a trip to China on Tuesday, accompanied by a large delegation of dozens of political representatives and some 240 business leaders, to boost economic ties with Beijing and reassert Brazil's role on the global stage.¹
• This comes a day after his office announced that the state visit — originally planned to take place in March — was back on after being postponed when 77-year-old Lula was hospitalized with a bout of pneumonia.²
• The Brazilian leftist president will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday to discuss issues such as trade, investment, and reindustrialization while also strengthening ties that had been strained under Jair Bolsonaro's government.³
• It is anticipated that about 20 new agreements will be signed during this four-day visit, including the joint construction of the CBERS-6 satellite. Other focuses will reportedly include the bilateral yuan clearing deal to reduce trading costs and cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative.⁴
• The Ukraine War will also be at the top of the agenda, as Lula wants to garner support for his mediated talks proposal to bring the conflict to an end after angering Ukrainian authorities by suggesting that Kyiv should renounce its claim to Crimea.⁵
• China is Brazil's largest trading partner, with the total traded volume having reached $150.4B in 2022. Since the first time Lula visited the country in 2004, bilateral trade has increased 21 times.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²CNN, ³Abc news, ⁴Global times, ⁵France 24 and ⁶Agência brasil.

Narratives

• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Chinadaily. The large number of businesspeople and politicians that have joined Lula's delegation to China makes it clear that Brazil has finally understood that strategic autonomy is the key to developing an emerging market economy of its size and potential. Unlike the US, which has trapped Latin American countries with its capital and companies, China represents a golden opportunity to the South American nation due to the complementarity of their economies, their cooperation framework, and their common interest of promoting multilateralism.
• Anti-China narrative, as provided by The diplomat. It is politically concerning to the US that Lula's government has been attracted to the Belt and Road Initiative, as such a move would not only cement Beijing's influence in Latin America's largest economy and democracy, but it would also go against Biden and Lula's environmental agenda. The Biden admin. must take decisive action focused on supporting Brazil's climate mitigation policies, before it is too late both to curtail Chinese influence and to prevent environmental degradation.

Predictions