Brazil Mobilizes Military Amid Potential Guyana-Venezuela Conflict

Facts

• The Brazilian Defense Ministry announced on Wednesday that the country has deployed additional military resources to its northern border, intensifying defensive actions amid mounting tensions between Guyana and Venezuela over the long-disputed oil-rich Essequibo region, which makes up two-thirds of Guyana.¹
• Local news outlet Folha de São Paulo reported, citing military sources, that there is no alert for a major mobilization, likely indicating that this measure is intended to serve as a warning to both sides against further escalation.²
• This comes as speculations about an imminent military move by Venezuela against Guyana based on alleged Brazilian intelligence reports raised concerns about regional stability and the geopolitical landscape in South America.³
• Venezuela is set to hold a referendum on Sunday, asking voters whether they reject 'by all means' the 1899 arbitral decision that declared that the area belonged to the then-British colony and whether they support a 1966 agreement that effectively nullified the arbitration 'as the only valid legal instrument' to reach a solution.⁴
• Though the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is expected to rule on Friday on Guyana's request for an injunction to halt the referendum on claims that it would violate international law, Venezuelan officials say the vote will be held anyway, claiming the court has no jurisdiction. This week, US officials visited Guyana to discuss their bilateral military partnership.⁵
• The territorial dispute has escalated over the past decade following two major oil discoveries that made Guyana's reserves greater than those of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. While Guyana has the world's biggest reserves of crude per capita, Venezuela sits on the largest proven reserves overall.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Folha de S.Paulo, ³Defence Blog, ⁴Associated Press, ⁵Axios and ⁶France 24.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Últimas Noticias. The free and democratic referendum on Essequibo is no threat but rather a massive exercise of sovereignty and defense of the Venezuelan territory and legitimate rights that will force the happy colony of Guyana back to the negotiating table. The stolen oil-rich Essequibo region has long had its resources exploited by the US, which negotiates oil and gas deals as if they were its own. It's about time for this to end.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Americas Quarterly. It's outrageous that Venezuela has arrogated to itself the right to hold a referendum to annex a territory awarded to the then-British territory, Guyana, in 1899 despite the 1966 Geneva Agreement stressing that it's up to the UN Secretary-General to choose how to settle the territorial dispute related to Essequibo. Given that the matter has already been referred to the ICJ, Caracas is clearly seeking to usurp the court's jurisdiction.

Predictions