Brazil: Military Leaders Implicate Bolsonaro in Coup Conspiracy

Facts

• According to court documents released on Friday, Brazil's former Pres. Jair Bolsonaro presented two former military commanders with a plan for him to remain in power despite his defeat in the 2022 election.¹
• Former army commander Marco Antônio Freire Gomes and former air force commander Carlos Baptista Jr. claimed that Bolsonaro suggested using legal processes to annul the election results, including declaring a state of siege.²
• Gomes told the Federal Police that Bolsonaro presented to military chiefs in Dec. 2022 the same coup-like draft found at the home of former Justice Minister Anderson Torres last year, alleging Torres had partaken in meetings where the coup d'état was plotted.³
• Bolsonaro faces several investigations before the Supreme Court, including a probe to determine whether he had any involvement in the Jan. 8, 2023, riots in the capital Brasília days after Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s inauguration.⁴
• The right-wing leader, who is barred from running for office until 2030 for abuse of power and misuse of media, had to surrender his passport to authorities last month as part of an investigation into an alleged coup attempt. Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing.⁵
• The former president rejects the allegations that he plotted a coup after his election defeat, which he never conceded, to prevent Lula from returning to power. However, he could possibly be arrested and put on trial by the Supreme Court.⁶

Sources: ¹NPR Online News, ²The Guardian, ³Folha de S.Paulo, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵CNN and ⁶Reuters.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by The Brazilian Report. Even if Bolsonaro's coup failed, accountability for what happened in Brazil isn't only a matter of justice but is crucial for the future of the country's democracy. The current investigation has revealed a coordinated, multi-pronged attempt by Bolsonaro and his accomplices to undermine the election's result. The political influence of Brazil's military can't be underestimated, and this is a concern that politicians must confront in the future.
• Right narrative, as provided by WSJ. You don't have to be a Bolsonaro supporter to see that Lula is using the judicial system to punish his predecessor. Lula is a leftist career politician who was convicted on corruption charges before they were stunningly reversed by activist judges. Right-leaning figures across the nation are being censored, and checks and balances are being curtailed as the legal system is increasingly used as a weapon against opponents. Leftist institutions are being weaponized against Bolsonaro.

Predictions