Brazil: Lula Replaces Army Commander

Facts

• Reports emerged on Saturday that Brazil's Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has sacked army commander Gen. Júlio César de Arruda, with a source telling Reuters his replacement will be Gen. Tomás Miguel Ribeiro Paiva, army commander of the southeast.
• This comes as Lula dismissed 53 military officers who were assigned to the National Security Advisor's office over this week, questioning how he could trust the military personnel with his security after suggesting that "people in the Armed Forces" had colluded with protesters.
• On Friday, however, Defense Minister José Múcio denied that the country's military was directly involved in the Jan. 8 riots in the capital city Brasilia, during which supporters of former Pres. Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings.
• After meeting with newly-elected Pres. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mucio said that "there was no direct armed forces involvement, but if any element participated, they will have to answer as citizens."
• Nearly 1.4K of those arrested in connection to riots have remained in custody, and at least 39 people have been charged so far. Brasília Gov. Ibaneis Rocha is among those currently being investigated after being suspended from his post.
• Bolsonaro, who hasn't officially acknowledged Lula's victory and left the country for Florida before the riots occurred, is also being investigated by Brazil's Supreme Court for any potential role he played on that day.

Sources: Reuters, VOA, DW, and Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by ABC. Pres. Lula is justifiably worried about the potential domestic entities involved in the Jan. 8 riots. Beyond that, he should also focus on the international forces shaping public sentiment, such as the right-wing Trump movement in the US that sparked the Capitol riots in Washington. Jair Bolsonaro and his far-right friends to the north still hold sway over their base, so Lula will likely be dealing with these factions for a long time to come.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by System Update. The Jan. 8 storming of government buildings was relatively peaceful despite some damage to furniture and artwork, and Bolsonaro never encouraged his supporters to gather that day, let alone attempt to stage a military coup. Mainstream media is promoting a conspiracy that doesn't exist while ignoring that Brazilians are fully capable of protesting and distrusting institutions without being guided by US politicians.

Predictions