Brazil: Keir Starmer Meets Xi Jinping at G20 Summit

Facts

• UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer met Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping on Monday at Brazil's G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro and called for a 'strong UK-China relationship.'^[1]
• This is the first meeting by a UK prime minister with Xi since Theresa May in 2018. It comes after Starmer and Xi spoke on a phone call last August and Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited China in October.^[2][3]
• While Downing Street said Starmer will continue to have 'serious and pragmatic discussions' with China, the prime minister stated he wanted the UK's 'relations [with Beijing] to be consistent, durable, respectful.'^[4][5]
• Meanwhile, Xi said China and the UK enjoy a 'broad space for co-operation' and that the two countries 'should take fostering greater development, better-serving our peoples and contributing more to the world' as their goals.^[6][4]
• In March, the UK had accused 'Chinese state-affiliated actors' of two 'malicious' cybersecurity breaches, sanctioning two individuals and an entity connected to group APT 31. China described the allegations as 'disinformation.'^[7][8]
• As of Q2 2024, China was the UK's fifth largest trading partner, making up 5.1% of total trade despite a 20.3% decrease compared to the four quarters ending in Q2 2023.^[9]

Sources: ^[1]BBC News, ^[2]South China Morning Post, ^[3]Reuters, ^[4]The Telegraph, ^[5]Guardian, ^[6]The Sun, ^[7]Verity, ^[8]Time and ^[9]assets.publishing.service.gov.uk.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by Express.co.uk and Inews.Co.Uk. While frank dialogue and cooperation will always be necessary between two major international powers, there are many concerns that now is certainly not the right time for Starmer to rub shoulders with Beijing. China continues to threaten Taiwan and refuses to condemn Russia for its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, with the incoming Trump administration already angered by the UK's decision to rescind the sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, posturing toward Beijing will only alienate the US further. The UK must think twice about closer relations with China at this time.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Chinadaily and Global Times. There's enormous potential for cooperation between China and the UK, and Starmer has made no secret that he's seeking a renewed relationship with Xi. Yet so far, the UK's behavior doesn't match its rhetoric, with trade embargoes and an increasing military presence in the South China Sea undermining Downing Street's hopeful messaging. Lammy's visit to China was a step in the right direction, but more must be done to reassure Beijing that Westminster is willing to step out of America's shadow and make use of the opportunities on offer.

Predictions