Brazil: Bolsonaro, Lula Clash In Last Pre-Election Debate

Facts

• On Friday, Brazil's right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro clashed with his leftist challenger, former Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in their final televised debate ahead of Sunday's runoff election.¹
• After discussing how much the minimum wage should increase, both candidates focused on trading barbs and accusations, calling each other a 'liar' several times.²
• Foreign policy was also disputed, with Lula alleging that Brazil has become isolated in the world and Bolsonaro bringing attention to his trip to Russia to secure fertilizer supply to help Brazilian agribusiness and his good relations with Middle Eastern countries.³
• As of Friday, The Economist's poll-of-polls indicated that Lula had a 4-point lead over Bolsonaro. In the first round, when almost 120M Brazilians voted, Lula led by five percentage points.⁴
• Sources close to Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court told Reuters that tensions could last until the presidential election is certified on Dec. 19 amid fears that Bolsonaro may contest the results if he loses.⁵
• During the debate, Bolsonaro stated that the entire 'system' is against him, repeating a complaint that radio stations favored Lula da Silva. In a post-debate interview, however, he stressed that 'whoever has more votes, wins.'²

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Bloomberg, ³ABC NEWS, ⁴Economist and ⁵Reuters.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by Nature. While Lula is far from perfect, a second term for Bolsonaro could cause irreparable damage to Brazilian democracy and the environment. Bolsonaro's abysmal COVID handling was just the tip of the iceberg in a stale strategy that he deployed throughout his entire four-year term, which saw him undermine the rule of law, tear down relevant institutions, and allow Amazon deforestation to soar. Brazil is ready to move on.
• Right narrative, as provided by FT. While Lula has a good reputation abroad, for many Brazilians, he's the face of big corruption schemes that marred his Workers' Party term and dragged the country into its worst-recorded recession. As the Brazilian economy has been thriving under Bolsonaro, his re-election has gained the support of a wide coalition that includes social conservatives and pro-business voters.