Brazil: Bolsonaro Banned From Running for Office Until 2030

Facts

• Brazil's top electoral court ruled on Friday that former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro had abused his power as president by deliberately undermining faith in the country's voting systems — blocking him from seeking public office until the 2030 election.¹
• The seven-judge voted against Bolsonaro at the end of a swift noncriminal trial that consisted of justices who delivered their analysis before voting, with brief comments from the defendant's legal team.²
• The case stemmed from a speech he gave on July 18, 2022, in a meeting with foreign diplomats in his residence in Brasília, where he claimed that the electronic voting machines used in Brazil were prone to hacking and open to fraud.³
• He is the third-ever Brazilian president to be barred from running again, with the other two being his nemesis Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — whose ban was annulled in 2021, clearing the way for his successful campaign last year — and the country's first democratically-elected president in decades, Fernando Collor de Mello.⁴
• Bolsonaro is expected to appeal the ruling to Brazil's Supreme Court, a body with which he has long been at loggerheads. Even if this appeal is successful, Bolsonaro would face another 15 electoral cases that could also bar him from seeking the presidency.⁵
• Separately, the former president faces multiple criminal investigations that could put him behind bars, including for allegedly fomenting a nationwide movement to reject his narrow defeat in the October elections.⁶

Sources: ¹Washington Post, ²Wall Street Journal, ³BBC News, ⁴Breitbart, ⁵New York Times, and ⁶Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Left narrative, as provided by Americas Quarterly. While this ruling alone will not remove the threat to the Brazilian democracy posed by the far-right "bolsonaristas," this is indeed an encouraging step ahead to promote national reconciliation and restore faith in institutions. Bolsonaro has long attempted to undermine Brazil's democratic establishment — casting ill-founded doubts over the country's voting machines, insulting Supreme Court justices, and emboldening his coup-mongering supporters. Hopefully, his ban will open the way for moderate contenders on the right.
• Right narrative, as provided by Wall Street Journal. You don't have to be a Bolsonaro supporter to see that Lula is using the judicial system as a means to punish his predecessor. Lula is a leftist career politician who was convicted on corruption charges before they were stunningly reversed by activist judges. Right-leaning figures across the nation are being censored, and checks and balances are being curtailed as the legal system is increasingly used as a weapon against opponents. We ought to be skeptical about charges against Bolsonaro in this environment.