Brazil: Bolsonaro Eyes Political Comeback with Trump's Help

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Facts

  • In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Friday, former Brazilian Pres. Jair Bolsonaro said that US Pres.-elect Donald Trump could help him return to power in the next presidential election.[1][2]
  • Bolsonaro is barred from running for public office until 2030 over alleged attacks on Brazil's voting system. Last week, police accused him of plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 defeat to Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.[3][4]
  • He suggested that Trump could use his influence, possibly via economic sanctions against the Lula government, to pressure authorities in Brazil to restore his own eligibility and allow him to register for the 2026 election.[1][5]
  • This comes as his son, Brazilian lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, attended Trump's watch party in Mar-a-Lago on election night last month, claiming that 'as goes the US, so goes Brazil' and that 'Jair Bolsonaro [would] be back in 2026.'[6][7]
  • However, Michel Temer — the former president who appointed Alexandre de Moraes to the Supreme Court and was rumored to be a potential running mate for Bolsonaro — said that the next Trump administration would have 'limited effects on Brazil.'[8]
  • One of Trump's closest foreign allies, Bolsonaro, has embraced the nickname 'Trump of the Tropics.' They reportedly share similar views on culture wars, the left, and the media, and have built parallel political legacies.[1][6]

Sources: [1]Wall Street Journal, [2]The Hill, [3]Reuters, [4]Al Jazeera, [5]Axios, [6]CNN, [7]The guardian and [8]Folha de S.Paulo.

Narratives

  • Right narrative, as provided by Breitbart. Bolsonaro and Trump have both been targeted by lawfare — from globalists, the deep state, and the left — in their relative countries, so it would be no surprise if the Republican wields his influence to help his Brazilian ally upon his return to the White House. Freedom and true democracy are about to make a comeback in Brazil.
  • Left narrative, as provided by Americas Quarterly. Embroiled in legal troubles, Bolsonaro has pinned his hopes of running for president again in 2026 on his ideological ally Donald Trump, threatening Brazil with punitive measures in order to get his ineligibility reversed. While the Trump card may help Bolsonaro, it's more likely to backfire as Lula moves to de-escalate tensions with the Republican.

Predictions