Blinken Meets Palestinian Pres. in Ramallah

Facts

• Continuing his tour of the region, US Sec. of State Antony Blinken met with Palestinian Pres. Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, in the West Bank, on Wednesday to discuss the conflict and the postwar role the Palestinian Authority (PA) may play in Gaza. While the Biden admin. has supported a reformed PA administering Gaza after the war, Israel has opposed any significant role over the strip for that body.¹
• Upon his arrival in Bahrain later that day, Blinken claimed that Abbas had expressed commitment to make the PA — which has limited governing powers in the West Bank — more effective amid allegations of growing corruption and authoritarianism. Meanwhile, a senior PA official claimed that several reforms, including on free speech and corruption, were proposed to Blinken but only in the context of a broader deal on ending the war and subsequent governance and rebuilding in Gaza.¹
• On Tuesday, after meeting with Israeli leaders, Blinken said that Israel will allow UN experts to enter northern Gaza to evaluate conditions for the future return of displaced Palestinians. Though an Israeli official had said their return depended on another hostage deal, a US official said such a conclusion wasn't reached in Blinken's meeting.²
• Also on Wednesday, an Israeli delegation reportedly traveled to Cairo to discuss a new round of potential prisoner exchange negotiations between Israel and Hamas with Egyptian officials. Talks stalled last week following the killing of a top Hamas official in Beirut, widely attributed to Israel. An Egyptian official said that Egypt and Qatar were working toward a new deal that would include a cease-fire.³
• US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stressed on Tuesday that the Biden admin. maintains that a cease-fire at this point would only benefit Hamas, but the US continues to support 'humanitarian pauses.' Speculation had arisen that Biden was signaling changes when he told protesters calling for a cease-fire he had been using all means at his disposal to get the Israeli government 'to reduce and significantly get out of Gaza.'⁴
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed over 23K people in the strip, the majority of whom were women and children. The official Israeli death toll of Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people, but over 100 hostages are still being held in Gaza.⁵

Sources: ¹New York Times, ²Axios, ³Associated Press, ⁴Voice of America and ⁵Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The US is doing everything it can to both prevent regional escalation and ensure that Israeli forces can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must continue to eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah, but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. The occupation forces are killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the entire enclave uninhabitable. If the US, Israel's biggest ally, truly wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Predictions