Blinken Arrives in Saudi Arabia as Hamas Considers Hostage Deal

Facts

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on Monday as part of a diplomatic tour through the region to discuss a possible hostage deal to which Hamas has not yet officially responded. Blinken is also reportedly set to discuss regional escalation and US strikes against Iranian-backed groups.¹
• As the likelihood of a deal being agreed upon soon remains unclear, there are growing concerns that Israeli forces will advance into the southern city of Rafah — a tiny pocket of the territory in which over 1M displaced Palestinians are sheltering. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the majority of Hamas's battalions in Gaza had been destroyed, adding that the rest were in the south and Israel would 'deal with them.'²
• In contrast to Netanyahu's comments, the Israeli military tacitly acknowledged reports that Hamas is attempting to re-establish aspects of its civil administration in northern Gaza, with unarmed operatives handing out money, supplies, and directives. The military said that it is addressing this and would not allow Hamas to regroup in the north of the strip.³
• Over the weekend, Israel also delivered its most detailed warning yet to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon, saying that war is not the 'first priority,' but Israel would be 'ready to attack immediately' if provoked. Israel also indicated that strikes against Hezbollah would not be constrained to Lebanon.⁴
• Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire along the border since the war began. A report on Sunday claimed that a deal currently being discussed would include Hezbollah withdrawing its forces from the border in exchange for Israel withdrawing from disputed territory. Hezbollah has said that it will not negotiate until there is a ceasefire in Gaza.⁵
• Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed over 27K people in the Gaza Strip, the majority of whom were women and children. The war has also created a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).⁶

Sources: ¹New York Times, ²Guardian, ³Jerusalem Post, ⁴Associated Press, ⁵The New Arab and ⁶MSN.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
• Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
• Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered large swaths of the strip uninhabitable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and has transformed Gaza into a wasteland. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
• Narrative D, as provided by Al Mayadeen. Hezbollah has so far successfully deterred Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty while also avoiding a devastating war that it does not want. Hezbollah cannot allow Israel to undertake such deplorable actions without consequence, and it has made concrete military gains against Israeli forces along the border. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond. Though Hezbollah seeks to end the bloodshed, it is ready to defend Lebanon.