Blinken: Arab Nations Cautious on Rebuilding Gaza if 'Leveled' Again

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Facts

  • US Sec. of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that Arab nations aren't keen to finance rebuilding Gaza after the war if it will be 'leveled' again in a few years, stressing the importance of establishing a Palestinian state in any regional settlement. He emphasized that Israel's security depended on normalization with Arab states and resolving the conflict with the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said the kingdom could recognize Israel as part of a comprehensive agreement that included a Palestinian state.1
  • US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, also present at Davos, said that Hamas' Oct. 7 attack hadn't fundamentally changed the Biden admin’s approach to the Middle East. He claimed that the goal of the attack was to derail normalization talks between Israel and Arab states — namely Saudi Arabia. He said that the war in Gaza was 'on a path of escalation' and the US seeks de-escalation and diplomacy.2
  • Israeli media reported on Monday that the country's Military chief Herzi Halevi told PM Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel risks squandering its military gains in Gaza because 'no strategy has been put together for the day after.' Halevi said that the end of Israel's military campaign 'must be anchored in policy,' warning that the military would have to return to areas where fighting has concluded. Internal Israeli discussions regarding Gaza's post-war governance have reportedly been complicated by infighting within the security cabinet.3
  • On Tuesday, a volley of rockets were fired from central Gaza into Israel. Israeli forces, specifically the 36th Division, had been operating in central Gaza — though they did not consider the area under their 'operational control' — but pulled out as part of an announced withdrawal. Other Israeli divisions are still present in central Gaza, where intense fighting continues.4
  • Senior Hamas official in Lebanon Osama Hamdan said in an interview published on Tuesday that Hamas viewed the various plans floated by the US and Israel as 'unacceptable,' claiming that Hamas was holding talks with various Palestinian factions to establish a new administration in Gaza after the war. Hamdan said that all the Palestinian factions agree that 'the form of the next phase is a Palestinian national decision,' though he did not provide details.5
  • Gaza's health ministry reports that the conflict has killed over 24K people in the Gaza Strip, the majority of whom were women and children. The official Israeli death toll on Oct. 7 stands at around 1.2K people (and there are still over 100 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip).6

Sources: 1Al Arabiya, 2Jewish Insider, 3The Times of Israel, 4Archive, 5The National and 6Voice of America.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by POLITICO. The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Predictions