Biden, Xi to Meet in San Francisco

Facts

• The highly anticipated face-to-face meeting between US Pres. Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have been confirmed for next Wednesday in the San Francisco Bay Area, with both sides reportedly setting modest expectations for the summit.¹
• The two leaders will reportedly discuss a range of matters — including core disagreements over trade and competition, the Israel-Hamas war, and the conflict in Ukraine. The issue of the self-ruling island of Taiwan, over which Beijing claims sovereignty, is likely to be at the top of the agenda.²
• Biden is also expected to press the Chinese president on reopening bilateral military communication channels that Beijing shut in the wake of the visit to Taiwan by the then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as the US stresses the importance of diplomacy to prevent competition from turning into conflict.³
• This gathering comes as Xi will visit the US from Nov. 14 to 17 to attend the 30th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting, where he is expected to fully elaborate on China's key initiatives to bolster cooperation and drive regional growth.⁴
• Though their last in-person meeting, which took place in Bali last year, had sparked optimism for an improvement in strained US-China relations, there has been no direct communication between Biden and Xi since then. Despite ties further deteriorating over the spy balloon row earlier this year, a string of top-level bilateral meetings have paved the way for the Biden-Xi summit in California.⁵
• Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng held talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in San Francisco for two days through Friday with the intent of setting the groundwork for a productive meeting between Biden and Xi and pushing economic and trade relations back to a healthy and stable track.⁶

Sources: ¹The Wall Street Journal, ²BBC News, ³FT, ⁴Global Times, ⁵Washington Post and ⁶China Daily.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. Though these talks aren't likely to produce any major breakthrough in the US-China relationship, the meeting is itself a positive development after months of tensions amid heavy global turmoil. As the Biden administration has listed Sino-American stability among its top foreign policy priorities so as to prevent another world crisis, this is certainly a first and necessary step to achieve this vital geopolitical goal.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Global Times. This long-awaited meeting comes as the US — still reluctant to back off — has realized that its military pressure on Beijing will never break the PRC's resolve to protect its territorial sovereignty and national security, but rather risks creating the conditions for a potential crisis to turn into a military conflict. Hopefully, the US has come to its senses and will finally stabilize relations with China as part of a realization that the world order is now strongly multipolar and no longer dominated by American hegemony.

Predictions