Biden: War Must End Before NATO Can Consider Ukraine Membership

Facts

• US Pres. Biden this weekend closed the door on Ukraine's membership of the NATO alliance, at least for now — telling CNN that the war with Russia must first end before membership for Ukraine can be considered.¹
• In an interview with the network's Fareed Zakaria that aired Sunday, Biden said: "I don't think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war."¹
• Biden added that he has discussed the matter with Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy. In recent weeks, Zelenskyy made repeated calls for "clear" commitments from NATO ahead of a key summit of the military alliance this week. Biden said that while NATO membership is off the table for now, he told Zelenskyy that the US would continue to provide Ukraine with security support — similar to US support for Israel — until the war ends and until the NATO application process is completed.¹
• "I think we have to lay out a rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify to be able to get into NATO," Biden added. "But I think it's premature to say, to call for a vote...because there are other qualifications that need to be met, including democratization and some of those issues."¹
• Meanwhile, ahead of the NATO summit, this year hosted in Lithuania, Biden arrived in the UK late on Sunday — his first visit to the country as head of state. On Monday, he met with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak — touting a "rock-solid" friendship between Washington and London — before going on to meet King Charles, having skipped his coronation earlier in the year.²
• Biden will then travel to the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius where he will remain for two days. His final stop before returning home will be the Finnish capital of Helsinki later in the week — there, Biden is expected to congratulate the country on becoming the 31st member of NATO earlier in the year.³

Sources: ¹CNN, ²US News & World Report, and ³Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Politico. This is a vital NATO summit for Ukraine. Not only does the alliance need to provide a clear road map to Ukraine's future membership of NATO, it must provide Ukraine with everything it needs so that it wins this war and reestablishes full control over its internationally recognized 1991 borders. This should include the delivery of Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) weapons.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Guardian. Although Putin may look weakened following the failed revolt, this key NATO summit is a time for mature statesmanship. The shifting goalposts on weapons show just how much the war has escalated over 16 months. Now's the time for NATO to realize that its security lies in a settlement with Russia, not doubling down on more weapons and war.

Predictions