Biden Says Threat of Putin Using Tactical Nuclear Weapons is 'Real'

Facts

• After denouncing Russia's placement of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as "absolutely irresponsible" on Saturday, US Pres. Biden on Monday said the threat of Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin using such weapons was "real."¹
• Speaking at a donor event in California, Biden said: "When I was out here about two years ago saying I worried about the Colorado River drying up, everybody looked at me like I was crazy. They looked at me like that when I said I worry about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons. It's real."¹
• However, US officials said they've no intention of changing the country's stance on Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons — which are shorter-range and less powerful than traditional nuclear warheads — in Belarus. They say the US has not seen any sign that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon in general.¹
• Admin. officials have similarly toned down Biden's remarks on Russia and nuclear weapons in the past. Last October, Biden told a fundraiser, "[Putin] is not joking when he talks about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons," adding that it would inevitably lead to "Armageddon."²
• Shortly thereafter, Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House spokeswoman, said: "The Pres. was speaking about concerns about Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons. We have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture, nor do we have indications that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons."²
• Meanwhile, in its latest assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military-affiliated think tank that tracks the war, also suggested that it didn't share Biden's calculus on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. It said, "ISW has long assessed that Russia will likely keep tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in order to consolidate de facto control of Belarus, but maintains that this deployment is extraordinarily unlikely to have battlefield impacts in Ukraine."³

Sources: ¹US News & World Report, ²Guardian, and ³UnderstandingWar.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Foreign Policy. Biden has a very complex task in trying to ensure that America's nuclear posture remains appropriate in the face of real and evolving Russian nuclear threats. There is a delicate line that must be balanced between making the stakes too high for Moscow and not promising consequences you're unwilling to inflict. Biden is managing the situation well but would be well advised to revisit the lessons from the Cuban missile crisis.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Guardian. Despite the nuclear threats from Putin, it's far from certain that he'd be willing to be the first leader to have used the weapons since 1945. If his goal is to stay in power, then it's the wrong way to go about it. Plus, even if he did make the order for a nuclear strike, he has no guarantee it would be executed down the chain of command, nor can he guarantee that the dated weapons and delivery systems will work. The risks are overstated.

Predictions