Biden Allows Limited Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory

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Facts

• US Pres. Joe Biden has given Ukraine approval to use American weapons to carry out limited strikes on Russian territory — green-lighting a change of policy that was previously ruled out over fears it would drag the US into direct confrontation with Russia.¹
• Coming after days of pressure to relax the rules that had been in place, the change of policy was not initially publicly announced. Rather, it was briefed to reporters at multiple outlets by US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has since confirmed the move.²
• One US official who spoke to Politico said: 'Ukraine is able to use US weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them.' However, it was added that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia 'has not changed.'¹
• The permission to use US weapons in Russia will likely carry additional restrictions. After Ukraine struck Russian nuclear missile early-warning sites with non-US weapons, one US official told the Washington Post earlier in the week that American officials are 'concerned' because Russia could perceive that its nuclear capabilities are being undermined.³
• Irrespective of any impositions, Moscow officials issued fiery statements in condemnation of the US decision. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council — one of the more hawkish Russian officials — said: 'Former Ukraine and its NATO allies will receive a response of such destructive force that the alliance itself will simply not be able to keep itself out of the conflict.'⁴
• Meanwhile, Maria Zakharova, Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, stated NATO weapons were already being used on Russian territory by Ukraine, alleging the decision was a 'smokescreen' to cover up previous actions.⁵
• While there was yet to be a public statement from Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin at the time of reporting, earlier in the week said that if approval for US weapons to strike inside Russia was given, it would lead to 'serious consequences' and a global conflict.⁶

Sources: ¹Politico, ²Al Jazeera, ³Washington Post, ⁴TASS (a), ⁵TASS (b) and ⁶Reuters.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by NBC. This decision, which applies only in the areas near Kharkiv, only enables Ukraine to strike Russian troops as they attack or prepare to attack and will help Ukraine better defend itself. There's no change in the broader policy of not permitting strikes on non-military sites as well as targets deep inside Russia.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. This is a dangerous escalation of the conflict. Russia has no choice but to eliminate these long-range weapons, in addition to the NATO personnel required to operate them, which will inevitably lead to NATO countries invoking Article 5 on collective defense. A global war is all but inevitable after this reckless move on the part of the US.

Predictions