Reports: Russian Missile Likely Shot Down Azerbaijan Plane

Facts

• A Russian surface-to-air missile likely caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash on Christmas Day, four Azerbaijani government sources with access to the preliminary findings of an investigation into the tragedy told Reuters on Thursday. Kazakhstan's chief prosecutor, however, has said that the probe hasn't yet settled on a definitive cause.^[1][2][3]
• On Wednesday, an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 on board. The plane carried 62 passengers and five crew members; 29 travelers survived the crash, while both pilots died.^[3][4]
• The flight, originally scheduled from Baku to Grozny, diverted across the Caspian Sea after reportedly encountering difficulties near Chechnya, where Russian air defenses were active against Ukrainian drones.^[5][6]
• Video footage and wreckage analysis revealed apparent damage to the aircraft's tail section. Sources told Euronews that the missile was fired at Flight 8432 above Grozny, and the shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft.^[7][8]
• Baku-based AnewZ alleged, citing Azerbaijani government sources, that a missile fired from a Pantsir-S air defense system hit the plane on its approach to Grozny. The outlet further claimed that Russian electronic warfare systems jammed the jet's communication.^[9]
• Previously, Kazakhstan’s aviation watchdog speculated that a bird strike may have caused the accident, which occurred shortly after drone strikes targeted southern Russia. Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, claimed that Russia was obligated to close the airspace over Grozny but didn't.^[10][11][12]

Sources: ^[1]Reuters, ^[2]The Moscow Times, ^[3]BBC News, ^[4]The Guardian, ^[5]CNN, ^[6]Bangkok Post, ^[7]EuroNews, ^[8]USA Today, ^[9]AnewZ, ^[10]New York Post, ^[11]Ukrainska Pravda and ^[12]TASS.

Narratives

• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by AnewZ and Sky News. There are clear indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system struck the Azerbaijan Airlines flight on Wednesday. Russia's recklessness in its war with Ukraine likely resulted in its electronic warfare systems paralyzing the aircraft's communications, forcing it to divert across the Caspian Sea rather than land at nearby Russian airports despite requests from the pilots for an emergency landing. This would be an act of negligence, and Russia should be held accountable.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. The reasons for the crash aren't yet known. What's known so far is that the flight was diverted because of poor weather conditions and crashed during its landing. The aircraft could have experienced a technical failure, or a flock of birds could have collided with it. It's unethical to prematurely point fingers at Moscow when the investigation is underway and police are still conducting forensic examinations.