Armenia: Azerbaijan Could Start War Over Border Villages

Facts

• In a video published on Tuesday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that his country could face a war with Azerbaijan if it does not compromise on the return of four Azerbaijani villages that have been part of Armenian territory for the last 30 years.¹
• Pashinyan said the government's 'policy is that we must prevent a war — we must not allow a war to start' and that Armenia could be attacked 'by the end of the week' if it does not return to its Soviet-era borders.²
• During a visit to the disputed region on Tuesday, Pashinyan said that his government had decided to determine the whole border, which would include returning areas that fall in Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory.²
• Pashinyan visited villagers in northern Armenia’s Tavush region, near four deserted Azerbaijani villages that Armenia has controlled since the fall of the USSR. The villages sit at the intersection of the main roads to Armenia's capital city Yerevan and its border with Georgia.³
• Azerbaijan has said that the return of its territories, several of which are in areas entirely surrounded by Armenian territories, is a precondition for any peace accords over Nagorno-Karabakh.³
• Though the region is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, Armenians in the region have had de facto independence since a war between the two countries in the 1990s. Baku regained parts of Karabakh and its surrounding territories during a six-week war in 2020.⁴

Sources: ¹www.reuters.com, ²POLITICO, ³Al Jazeera and ⁴Associated Press.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Associated Press. Pashinyan has failed Armenians by allowing Azerbaijan to reclaim control over Karabakh and expel ethnic Armenians from the area. This loss of territory is likely a result of the Pashinyan and his government trying too hard to play into the good graces of the West.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. The Armenian government's primary focus right now is avoiding war. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has lasted long enough. If returning these territories will prevent Azerbaijan from attacking Armenia and will contribute to peace between the two countries then it's the right decision.
• Narrative C, as provided by Azernews.Az. Though it is unfortunate that it took this long for Azerbaijan to finally liberate territories stolen from it, the Azerbaijani people have plenty to celebrate as their land is finally returned to them. Some have accused Azerbaijan of using force to secure its internationally-recognized territory, but these falsehoods completely ignore the suffering of so many Azerbaijanis who can now return home.

Predictions