Armenia, Azerbaijan Agree to Work Toward Peace Deal

Facts

• Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to exchange prisoners of war and work toward signing a peace treaty, a sign of significant progress after three decades of conflict in the region.¹
• In a joint statement released on Thursday, the two sides agreed to seize 'a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region,' adding an agreement could be signed by the end of the year.²
• As a 'gesture of goodwill,' Armenia has agreed to release two Azerbaijani military servicemen, while Azerbaijan will release 32 Armenian prisoners of war.³
• Furthermore, Armenia said it would withdraw its candidacy and back Azerbaijan's bid to host the COP29 climate summit. In exchange, Azerbaijan would support Armenia's nomination for the COP29's bureau of the Eastern European Group.⁴
• The agreement 'to normalize relations and to reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity' comes after talks between administrations of Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's Pres. Ilham Aliyev.⁵
• The conflict between the Caucasus neighbors centers around the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which — although internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory — was under the unofficial control of an unrecognized ethnic Armenian state until September.⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²France 24, ³BBC News, ⁴The kyiv independent, ⁵CNN and ⁶Al Jazeera.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Commonspace.eu. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at odds over Nagorno-Karabakh for over three decades. The two countries have already fought two wars to control the region, and an atmosphere of mutual hostility and distrust remains. As previous ceasefire agreements have proven brittle, there's little possibility of peace in the area.
• Narrative B, as provided by Bloomberg. This breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations would ensure a durable and dignified peace in the region. The international community must support the two countries' efforts to agree to an important confidence-building measure, avert another war, and allow Armenians to live side by side in the same region as Azerbaijanis.

Predictions