Armenia and Azerbaijan Exchange Prisoners of War

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Facts

• 32 Armenians captured between 2020-2023 were traded on Wednesday in return for two Azerbaijani soldiers held captive since April this year, with the exchange taking place on the border between the two countries.¹
• In a statement posted on Facebook, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that all 32 prisoners had crossed the border from Azerbaijan, and are to 'undergo a preliminary medical examination' before returning to their families.²
• Azerbaijan's State Commission Captive and Missing, Hostage Citizens released its statement confirming the news, with the health of the Azerbaijani soldiers being confirmed by the International Committee of the Red Cross.³
• On Dec. 7, the two countries released a joint statement announcing their intentions to 'normalize relations and reach a new peace treaty,' and announced this week's prisoner swap as well as Armenia's support for Azerbaijan's Conference of Parties (COP) 29 bid as a gesture of goodwill.⁴
• Since 2020, conflict has rekindled between the two states concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which until recent fighting in September, saw an Azerbaijani military operation capture the territory containing a population of approximately 120K. Intermittent conflict between the two states concerning Nagorno-Karabakh has occurred since the end of WWI.⁵
• Following Azerbaijan's military operation, the majority of the region's population fled to Armenia. Last month, Armenia claimed that 55 prisoners were being held by Azerbaijan and Russian state media has claimed that both countries are in continued discussions to withdraw troops from the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.¹

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Asbarez, ³Human, ⁴Eurasianet and ⁵Voanews.com.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Dailynewsegypt. The agreement of a prisoner exchange between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a historic development that the region is hopeful will be the first step towards an end to hostilities. Amicable developments are an unexpected turn after decades of conflict, and the unified call for security surely paves the way toward further reconciliation via a peace treaty.
• Narrative B, as provided by Eurasia review. A peace treaty does not need to be in place to advance improved bilateral relations between Baku and Yerevan. The prisoner exchange is a helpful example that, even without a peace treaty, the two nations can cooperate without an accord. Although inevitably still the end goal, practical normalization must be prioritized over a rushed approach towards ink on paper.

Predictions