Arizona Senator Sinema Won't Seek Reelection

Facts

• Centrist Arizona US Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — who left the Democratic Party to become an independent in 2022 — Tuesday announced she would not seek reelection, citing how she feels her middle-ground approach to politics isn't 'what America wants right now.'¹
• Sinema caucused with Democrats after switching her affiliation, helping pass much of Pres. Joe Biden's agenda and supporting his judicial nominees. But she also stood against several Democratic policies, including raising taxes on corporations and weakening the filibuster.²
• With Sinema stepping aside at the end of her first term, the race projects to pit Democratic US Rep. Ruben Gallego against Republican Kari Lake, the former television host who's a strong ally of former Pres. Donald Trump.³
• A swing state, Arizona voted for Biden in 2020 by less than one percentage point.⁴
• The 2022 Arizona race for US Senate saw $129M in spending before Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly accumulated 51.4% of the vote to defeat his Republican challenger Blake Masters.⁵

Sources: ¹The New York Times, ²One America, ³FOX News, ⁴CNN and ⁵Reuters.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by PJ Media. Sinema has decided to leave the Senate because the Democratic Party has veered too far left, and even as an independent she would have had a difficult time fundraising and garnering votes in a three-way race. With Gallego carrying Biden's failed policies like an albatross, the door is now wide open for Lake to bring Republican sanity — and possibly a Republican majority — to the Senate.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by The Nation. Sinema may claim she's been forced to resign by extremism, but she's actually lost popularity because her brand of bipartisanship creates bad policy. Perhaps her lasting legacy will be paving the way for a rock-solid Democrat in Gallego to take the baton from her and carry it into the Senate to preserve Democrats' majority and fight for progressive policies.

Predictions