Argentina: Shock Win Called for Javier Milei in Presidential Primaries

Facts

• Freedom Advances leader and libertarian lawmaker Javier Milei delivered a blow to Argentina's political establishment on Sunday, when he emerged as the most popular candidate in a key primary vote ahead of the October 22 presidential election.¹
• With 97 percent of the ballot counted as of Monday morning, Milei held a lead just short of two-points over the combined vote of the Together for Change opposition bloc and a lead of more than two-points over the ruling left-wing Unity for the Homeland alliance.²
• These Argentinian votes will determine which candidates can compete in general elections, as only political groups that have reached a threshold of 1.5 percent of the weekend's nationwide primary ballots will be qualified to run.³
• Economy Minister Sergio Massa has been confirmed as the ruling coalition candidate, while former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich defeated Buenos Aires City Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta to win the Together for Change nomination.⁴
• The Open, Simultaneous, and Mandatory Primary Elections (PASO) system was created in 2009 to allow citizens to choose their preferred candidates within the same political coalition. However, only seven out of the 15 contending groups have put forward more than one presidential hopeful this year.⁵
• Participation in the primaries is mandatory for most adults and each person gets one vote, making it a de facto nationwide opinion poll two months before the first round of the presidential election. Yet, voter turnout was under 70 percent on Sunday, the lowest ever for a PASO.⁶

Sources: ¹Buenos Aires Times, ²Bloomberg, ³Associated Press, ⁴Buenos Aires Herald, ⁵Bloomberg Línea, and ⁶Reuters.

Narratives

• Right narrative, as provided by The Wall Street Journal. Argentina has entered into its worst economic crisis in two decades under the Alberto Fernández presidency, as inflation has surpassed 100 percent and economic activity has stagnated, so it's no surprise that the outgoing leader gave up reelection ahead of a strong defeat. Only the pro-business opposition can offer Argentines hope for better days.
• Left narrative, as provided by Americas Quarterly. It's certain that Fernández's plans for reelection were abandoned due to his low approval ratings, but Sergio Massa is not cannon fodder in the face of an imminent electoral defeat. The Peronist presidential hopeful is a moderate business-friendly politician that may yet garner support from the center and the left, especially as he will compete against far-right rivals.